Is Brian McCann No Longer a Power Hitter?

Fredi Gonzalez has seemingly "settled" the issue of who his cleanup hitter is, and it seems to be Brian McCann. This seems to have happened because it looks like Fredi starts his lineup by penciling in Jason Heyward in the 6th spot and then builds off that alternating lefty righty. So Because Heyward (left handed) must hit 6th, that puts Uggla (right handed) 5th and McCann (left handed) 4th. The Heyward hitting 6th issue has been talked to death, and I won't revisit it here, other than to say, for all the world, that seems to be the primary factor in why McCann is the cleanup hitter.

Now McCann has been a good power hitter and a good candidate for the spot for most of his career. He's been the best power hitting catcher since he came into the league.

However, McCann has seen his power numbers steadily drop since his best power year, 2008 (he had a slightly higher slugging percentage in 2006, but that was mostly because he had a much higher BABIP).

In 2008, Brian McCann was a behemoth. In Just 145 games, he hit 42 doubles and 23 homeruns and even added in a triple. 66 extra base hits from the catcher's spot is some serious damage.

In 2009, we saw a slight dip, but seemingly nothing to be concerned with. McCann still hit 21 homers, which isn't statistically different from 23. However, his doubles did drop from 42 to 35. That was a more significant drop than the homers, but still probably nothing to be concerned over.

In 2010, the homers stayed the same, again likely keeping any alarms from going off. However, his doubles fell again, this time all the way to 25.

People tend to not pay much attention to doubles, but it's long been my contention that doubles are perhaps the most criminally overlooked stat in baseball. Doubles rates, when combined with homers tend to give you a pretty good idea of how often a player is hitting the ball with authority. Comparing McCann's 2010 season to his 2008 season, just looking at doubles and homers, the alarms are beginning to go off:

2008: 42 2B, 23 HR = 65 HR + 2B
2010: 25 2B, 21 HR = 46 HR + 2B

So McCann's HRs + 2Bs have dropped by almost 30%. McCann almost hit more doubles in 2008 than he hit homers and doubles combined in 2010.

So what could be causing this? I can identify three possible factors as being most likely: bad luck, bad health, premature aging due to the rigors of the catching position.

Bad luck is often underappreciated in baseball. Often times the difference between an average season and a very good season is just a few balls finding a couple extra inches left or right. I was perfectly willing to say that McCann's 2009 may well have been bad luck. 7 doubles and 2 home runs is entirely within the range of possible bad luck, especially since McCann played fewer games. However, he then tacked on another, mostly healthy, season and his numbers dropped even further in 2010. Could McCann's power outage be bad luck? It's possible, but at this point he's had enough AB's that it seems unlikely that bad luck plays much more than a small role.

We know McCann had vision issues off and on for the past few years. We know that hitting a baseball with authority takes excellent vision. Maybe McCann's power outage is the result of those vision issues and those vision issues are correctable. Well, this could very well be the case. However, if this is the explanation, then it seems hard to make the case that the vision issues are really correctable at this point. If it's a problem with his vision, then it has taken nearly two years and we still haven't seen McCann consistently hit the ball with authority. Also cutting against the idea that this is mostly a vision issue is the fact that McCann has substantially improved his walk rate. If he's truly having major vision problems, then it would seem unlikely that he's also able to have a better ability to identify strikes and balls. McCann also has seen a decrease in his swing and miss percentage, again cutting against the idea that this is a vision issue.

Lastly is the explanation that no Braves fan wants to hear. It could be possible that the catching a lot of games in the Atlanta heat for several years has just worn him down to the point that he just isn't as strong as he once was. Catching is a hard job and because McCann's bat has been so valuable to the Braves over the years, he has caught a LOT of games. Very few catchers have long careers where they maintain high power numbers throughout, and most of those that have have played for a long time with high power played in places that are nothing like the heat of Atlanta. Carlton Fisk played his career mostly outside of anything like serious heat. Mike Piazza played in Southern California, which can get hot, but not sweltering and New York. Perhaps McCann is just worn down. Sadly this explanation seems to make the most sense. It would explain why McCann has maintained every other part of his offensive game, and in fact improved his walk rate, but has seen a steady drop in his power.

For right now, McCann is the Braves number 4 hitter. For right now he has no extra base hits. One or both of those are going to have to change in a hurry, or this season could unravel quickly. Even if McCann is now more of a singles hitter, he could still be a much better than average offensive catcher, especially considering his improving walk rates. However, if his power drop is real and not just an aberration, he certainly shouldn't be hitting 4th.