So after finals knocked me out of blogging for a couple of weeks, I'm back.
So the Braves bullpen has been good lately. Ridiculously good. They gave up a few runs in the nightcap of the doubleheader. With the possible additions of Smoltz, Soriano and Mike Gonzalez, I'm almost worried about messing up the chmesitry the bullpen has going. Almost. As good as the bullpen has been, if those guys come back and do what they can do, the bullpen could just be SICK.
So with Campillo and Jo Jo pitching pretty well lately, its good to finally see some guys doing their best to pitch themselves into a rotation spot. I like Campillo as a starter because he throws so many different pitches at so many different speeds all for strikes. He's not going to throw a shutout every time out, but I think he can be a 5.
The hitters have had some trouble with consistency, but as its heating up, so are they. Tex is showing signs of life and K-Jo is looking like he's about to go on one of his hot streaks out fo the 7 spot. I'm still really worried about Francouer, who just looks completely lost up there right now. With 7 other guys hitting well, Francouer can take some time to find himself at the plate.
Scary moment at the end Ryan Church tried to break up a double play and just got clobbered by a big Yunel Escobar knee. I'm sure Church has a concussion. Church looked to be way out of the base line and was up pretty high, you jsut have to be careful. I appreciate the hard play, but he was a little too far off, it wasn't a fully clean play. He couldn't have touched the bag and he paid the price. Its sad that it was such a violent hit and I hope he's fine, but there is a reason you don't go in A) that high (he nearly got hit in the head with the throw) and B) that far off the bag.
It would be nice to see the braves pull out at least one more win this series and possibly the 4 game sweep. As much trouble as the mets have seen, they are still right there and if we can launch a major body blow right now, that really really could help come september. I also think it might tear apart what's left of the team's clubhouse.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Smoltz To Come Back As Reliever
John Smoltz believes that when his DL stint is over, he'll be in the bullpen. (From MLB.com) "I'm coming back as a reliever first and then we'll see what happens," Smoltz said during a late Wednesday afternoon telephone conversation. "I'm content with this."
What this does is makes Mike Hampton and/or Chuck James much more important and means Glavine has to be healthy the rest of the season. Hudson is fine as the #1. Jurjjens has exceeded even the loftiest projections. Glavine has pitched pretty well when healthy. That leaves two spots to be covered though. Chuck James will almost assuredly be called on to fill one of them. That leaves Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, JoJo Reyes and Mike Hampton to fight it out for the last one. Hampton likely is AT LEAST two weeks away from returning, if at all.
I like Jeff Bennett the best out of those options, although JoJo will get a chance to prove himself tomorrow.
While one problem crops up, it is possible that Smoltz moving to the bullpen, along with the eventual return of Soriano will solve what has been the biggest problem so far (as I type this the braves just blew another late inning lead). I'm not saying I think Smoltz can just jump into being a dominant closer, but the transition is substantially easier from starter to reliever than the other way around.
Do I think the Braves can win this way? Enough for now, but a move will need to be made if one of the guys competing for the fifth spot doesn't step up.
The offense seriously needs to get in gear. Specifically Francouer and Kelly Johnson, who other than a couple of one game outbursts, have been pretty anemic thus far. With the pitching the way it is, the Braves are going to have to score a lot of runs.
What this does is makes Mike Hampton and/or Chuck James much more important and means Glavine has to be healthy the rest of the season. Hudson is fine as the #1. Jurjjens has exceeded even the loftiest projections. Glavine has pitched pretty well when healthy. That leaves two spots to be covered though. Chuck James will almost assuredly be called on to fill one of them. That leaves Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, JoJo Reyes and Mike Hampton to fight it out for the last one. Hampton likely is AT LEAST two weeks away from returning, if at all.
I like Jeff Bennett the best out of those options, although JoJo will get a chance to prove himself tomorrow.
While one problem crops up, it is possible that Smoltz moving to the bullpen, along with the eventual return of Soriano will solve what has been the biggest problem so far (as I type this the braves just blew another late inning lead). I'm not saying I think Smoltz can just jump into being a dominant closer, but the transition is substantially easier from starter to reliever than the other way around.
Do I think the Braves can win this way? Enough for now, but a move will need to be made if one of the guys competing for the fifth spot doesn't step up.
The offense seriously needs to get in gear. Specifically Francouer and Kelly Johnson, who other than a couple of one game outbursts, have been pretty anemic thus far. With the pitching the way it is, the Braves are going to have to score a lot of runs.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Sun Kil Moon - April
2.5/5
Its great that Kozelek has found his signature sound, but don't you wish that he'd write just one song that doesn't sound like every other song he's ever written, which all sound kinda like Neil Young on muscle relaxers? The songs here are long and that's magnified by the fact that all the songs sound so similar that the album plays like one really long song. While everything here, standing by itself, is hauntingly pretty, it gets monotonous very fast.
The guitar work here is solid, but not memorable at all. The lyrics are fine, but you find yourself quickly ignorning them. Kozalelek's voice is soothing, but it serves more to put you to sleep than anything else. Normally I comment on specific songs, but nothing here is any different thanything else, so why bother? Its all pretty, in a stark sort of way, so if that's your thing, just listen to the album and maybe download a couple of songs. Picking one song as the standout is just impossible, it would be sort of eating 50 blue m&m's and trying to say which was the best. They were all kind of good, they all tasted exactly alike and you were sick of them by the end.
This album is great to study to, because it just turns into background music very fast. And that is all it is, really really great background music. I could easily see this being in the background of some indie film. But is it "real" music in any sense? No, not really. I can see myself coming home moderately intoxicated after having struck out with some girl and putting this album on to go to sleep to. And that's just not real music.
Its great that Kozelek has found his signature sound, but don't you wish that he'd write just one song that doesn't sound like every other song he's ever written, which all sound kinda like Neil Young on muscle relaxers? The songs here are long and that's magnified by the fact that all the songs sound so similar that the album plays like one really long song. While everything here, standing by itself, is hauntingly pretty, it gets monotonous very fast.
The guitar work here is solid, but not memorable at all. The lyrics are fine, but you find yourself quickly ignorning them. Kozalelek's voice is soothing, but it serves more to put you to sleep than anything else. Normally I comment on specific songs, but nothing here is any different thanything else, so why bother? Its all pretty, in a stark sort of way, so if that's your thing, just listen to the album and maybe download a couple of songs. Picking one song as the standout is just impossible, it would be sort of eating 50 blue m&m's and trying to say which was the best. They were all kind of good, they all tasted exactly alike and you were sick of them by the end.
This album is great to study to, because it just turns into background music very fast. And that is all it is, really really great background music. I could easily see this being in the background of some indie film. But is it "real" music in any sense? No, not really. I can see myself coming home moderately intoxicated after having struck out with some girl and putting this album on to go to sleep to. And that's just not real music.
Gomez - Liquid Skin (Review From The Vaults)
From time to time I plan on doing a review of an album that has been around for a while. Since I get to pick this album from my entire library, selection bias will most likely make all these reviews overwhelmingly positive. Its just not fun to review bad albums, so if I get to choose, I'm going to choose to review good albums. I'll start it off with one of my favorite bands' second album, Liquid Skin by Gomez.
You don't get the kind of publicity Gomez got right out of the gate too often, beating out the likes of The Verve and Massive Attack for Britain's highly presitgious Mercury Prize for their debut album, a home recorded gem, Bring It On. How they followed up that success for their second album would largely shape the rest of their careers.
From the way all of their albums have been put together, you can tell Gomez likes the art of putting together an album. Many bands these days put together a cohesive album by just making everything sound exactly the same (see, for example, Band of Horses' first album) and others eschew an epic album on its own right, just having catchy songs and then some filler to fill in the gaps (think the classic, but highly uneven Sixteen Stone). Gomez has never taken either route, putting together albums that are simulataneously all over the map while still forming a cohesive whole. Nowhere is that more evident than on Liquid Skin. The album ranges from The dazzlingly beautiful We Haven't Turned Around, to the jammed out rocker, California and everything in between.
The first thing to notice with Gomez is what an odd collection of elements they are. Olly Peacock is probably the most underrated drummer in indie pop rock today. These days pop-rock bands generally avoid "busy" drummers, but Gomez didn't go that route. Few pop-rock drummers play as much as Olly Peacock does and few are as inventive as he is. This would seem to go smack in the face of the often times delta blues influenced arrangements, but somehow it works perfectly together. Then you have the guitaristry of Gomez. Make no mistake, Gomez is a guitar band. Their songs are as much about the guitar as Metallica's are, but in a wholly different way. Three band members play guitar (Ian Ball, Tom Gray and Ben Ottwell), but they are about as far from Lynyrd Skynyrd as two bands who both have three guitarists and were influenced by the blues can be. You will rarely ever find a guitar solo on a Gomez album and that is the case here. There are a few riffs that border on a guitar solo, but there is not a single bonafide guitar solo anywhere on the album. What Gomez lacks in virtuosity, they make up for in knowing how to perfectly arrange guitar parts together and within the overall song. If the measure of a truly great guitar line is being unable to imagine the song with any guitar line other than what was played, Gomez has that in spades.
The bass of Blackie (Paul Blackburn) is there and it does what its supposed to do, hold the often free wheeling drumming in place, which is what you would expect for a non-prog rock indie-pop-rock band with a busy drummer. All three guitarists (Gray often plays keys and the occasional bass line) also sing. Ben Ottwell has by far the most distinctive vocals of the group, an absolutely perfectly soulful raspy voice that is what John Bell of Widespread Panic wishes he sounded like. It would be a mistake however to ignore the other vocalists, as Ball and Gray more than capably hold their own vocally. The band is at their best when they are harmonizing and alternating vocal duties within the same song. They don't hold to a single type of harmonizing, varying from harmonies reminiscent of The Eagles perfectly overlapped harmonies to the clearly distinct but complimentary harmonies of The Band.
With such varied elements, you'd expect Gomez to have a distinct sound and be able to cover a wide range of musical area, which is exactly what they do both over their careers (from the rocking Split the Difference, to the electronic In Our Gun, to the whimsical Bring It On, etc) and on this album.
The album kicks off with Hangover, a song that is both fun and very pretty in parts. Sung by both Ottwell and Ball, its not a spectacular song, but a very, very good song. A song in praise of a woman who is there for you after a long night of partying, it sets the mood of the album and shows a lot of the elements that will keep resurfacing throughout the album.
Next up is Revolutionary Kind. A Ben Ottwell sung tune, it continues the meandering fun of Hangover. It picks up steam at the end and turns into an almost dance song.
The third track, Bring It On, oddly the title of the previous album, sees the band breaking loose a bit. Much like the previous track the song starts slowly, building throughout the song in energy until the end of the song could be an entirely different song. Ball and Ottwell trade vocal duties throughout the track, ending with them both yelling the refrain.
At 4 we find Blue Moon Rising. Similar in structure to Bring It On, but with nice, funky guitar lines (both acoustic and highly distorted electric). Not the greatest song, but still fun, and as far as a filler song, its really good.
Las Vegas Dealer is up next. It features a lot of harmonies and a quirky interlude piano piece. This song is a lot of fun in its own right, but its primary purpose is to break up the first third of the album from the second third. Gomez does this a lot on their albums, which can typically be divided up thematically in thirds by quirky fun songs serving as the transition points.
You don't get the kind of publicity Gomez got right out of the gate too often, beating out the likes of The Verve and Massive Attack for Britain's highly presitgious Mercury Prize for their debut album, a home recorded gem, Bring It On. How they followed up that success for their second album would largely shape the rest of their careers.
From the way all of their albums have been put together, you can tell Gomez likes the art of putting together an album. Many bands these days put together a cohesive album by just making everything sound exactly the same (see, for example, Band of Horses' first album) and others eschew an epic album on its own right, just having catchy songs and then some filler to fill in the gaps (think the classic, but highly uneven Sixteen Stone). Gomez has never taken either route, putting together albums that are simulataneously all over the map while still forming a cohesive whole. Nowhere is that more evident than on Liquid Skin. The album ranges from The dazzlingly beautiful We Haven't Turned Around, to the jammed out rocker, California and everything in between.
The first thing to notice with Gomez is what an odd collection of elements they are. Olly Peacock is probably the most underrated drummer in indie pop rock today. These days pop-rock bands generally avoid "busy" drummers, but Gomez didn't go that route. Few pop-rock drummers play as much as Olly Peacock does and few are as inventive as he is. This would seem to go smack in the face of the often times delta blues influenced arrangements, but somehow it works perfectly together. Then you have the guitaristry of Gomez. Make no mistake, Gomez is a guitar band. Their songs are as much about the guitar as Metallica's are, but in a wholly different way. Three band members play guitar (Ian Ball, Tom Gray and Ben Ottwell), but they are about as far from Lynyrd Skynyrd as two bands who both have three guitarists and were influenced by the blues can be. You will rarely ever find a guitar solo on a Gomez album and that is the case here. There are a few riffs that border on a guitar solo, but there is not a single bonafide guitar solo anywhere on the album. What Gomez lacks in virtuosity, they make up for in knowing how to perfectly arrange guitar parts together and within the overall song. If the measure of a truly great guitar line is being unable to imagine the song with any guitar line other than what was played, Gomez has that in spades.
The bass of Blackie (Paul Blackburn) is there and it does what its supposed to do, hold the often free wheeling drumming in place, which is what you would expect for a non-prog rock indie-pop-rock band with a busy drummer. All three guitarists (Gray often plays keys and the occasional bass line) also sing. Ben Ottwell has by far the most distinctive vocals of the group, an absolutely perfectly soulful raspy voice that is what John Bell of Widespread Panic wishes he sounded like. It would be a mistake however to ignore the other vocalists, as Ball and Gray more than capably hold their own vocally. The band is at their best when they are harmonizing and alternating vocal duties within the same song. They don't hold to a single type of harmonizing, varying from harmonies reminiscent of The Eagles perfectly overlapped harmonies to the clearly distinct but complimentary harmonies of The Band.
With such varied elements, you'd expect Gomez to have a distinct sound and be able to cover a wide range of musical area, which is exactly what they do both over their careers (from the rocking Split the Difference, to the electronic In Our Gun, to the whimsical Bring It On, etc) and on this album.
The album kicks off with Hangover, a song that is both fun and very pretty in parts. Sung by both Ottwell and Ball, its not a spectacular song, but a very, very good song. A song in praise of a woman who is there for you after a long night of partying, it sets the mood of the album and shows a lot of the elements that will keep resurfacing throughout the album.
Next up is Revolutionary Kind. A Ben Ottwell sung tune, it continues the meandering fun of Hangover. It picks up steam at the end and turns into an almost dance song.
The third track, Bring It On, oddly the title of the previous album, sees the band breaking loose a bit. Much like the previous track the song starts slowly, building throughout the song in energy until the end of the song could be an entirely different song. Ball and Ottwell trade vocal duties throughout the track, ending with them both yelling the refrain.
At 4 we find Blue Moon Rising. Similar in structure to Bring It On, but with nice, funky guitar lines (both acoustic and highly distorted electric). Not the greatest song, but still fun, and as far as a filler song, its really good.
Las Vegas Dealer is up next. It features a lot of harmonies and a quirky interlude piano piece. This song is a lot of fun in its own right, but its primary purpose is to break up the first third of the album from the second third. Gomez does this a lot on their albums, which can typically be divided up thematically in thirds by quirky fun songs serving as the transition points.
Thus far the album has been full of good songs, but hasn't seen a truly great song. However, We Haven't Turned Around is a truly, breathtakingly, hauntingly, beautiful song. This is one of those songs where everything about it is absolutely perfect. Usually a song can delve in to useless schlog with the addition of a cello. Generally, its just a sellout move and only serves to detract from the song. But occasionally, on a truly beautiful song, it makes the song. And that's the case here. Quite possibly if Ben Ottwell was born to sing a single song, it was this song. Its never clear exactly what the lyrics are about, but they fit so perfectly with the mood of the song that it doesn't really matter. The lyrics aren't there to tell a story, they're there to convey pure emotion and they do that perfectly. A lot of bands would have opted for more underwhelming percussion on such a beautiful song, but Gomez rightly let Olly do his thing and it paid off with beautfully complimentary drum lines that interact just right with the rest of the instruments and the song as a whole. Musical moments just don't come much better than the crashing return to the chorus at 3:47. You wouldn't think that a heavily distorted guitar could fit so well, but it just does. There are a lot of elements about this song that should be too over the top or that just don't fit, but amazingly everything is just right. For a band that self-produced this album, the fact that everything is just perfect is a true testimony to their talent.
Just when the band might be slipping in to taking itself too seriously (think Coldplay) they hit you with the fun little jaunt of Fill My Cup. Nothing particularly remarkable, just an enjoyable little song that breaks up the emotion of We Haven't Turned Around.
Rhythym and Blues Alibi is a dancibly pretty song. The song is held together by a great guitar riff and the guitaristry of the song is fantastic throughout. Ian Ball's vocals are right on point.
Rosalita is one of the more underrated songs on the album. While most of the songs on this album don't tell a story as much as invoke feelings, Rosalita tells a coherent story. Lyrically, its filled with great lines such as "Since you left me its your flag I'm flying/ but I'm sick of crying/why did you chose to deceive me?/was your plan just to kiss, fuck and leave me, so considerately?" The interaction between Ottwell's crooning, the clean guitar jangle and the gentle percussion are just right for the song. The song features the closest thing to a guitar solo you'll find on the album, but its more of tasteful riffing than an actual guitar solo. That is one thing Ben Ottwell is really great at, laying on the verge of great riffs and a solo. His playing is always so connected to the song that its hard to call it a solo, but noteworthy enough that its not rhythym playing either. Thematically its the beginning of the final third.
California is one of the band's fans' most beloved songs. It sees the band stretch out, but not into noodling. The spacy song is headphone rock at its best. With just a dynamite guitar riff that lets the song change moods in an instant from etheral moodiness to straightforward rocking to psychadelia and somehow it all seems to not only work, but be just right. At 4:54 to 5:58 the song just soars, propelled by Olly Peacock's drumming, a wonderful guitar line and Ottwell's vocals. The song then closes with a psychadelic sing-a-long.
The closer, Devil Will Ride, takes all the normal closing touches, a soft opening with the words "bye-bye", a funky sing-a-long, big horns and a really pretty, soaring bridge and throws them all together, and again, it somehow comes out working. Like a lot of Gomez songs, especially on this album, you can listen to this song 20 times and each time pick up some perfect subtle little element that just works so well.
While I love their other albums, there is a pretty compelling argument that Gomez were much better producers themselves than when they worked with anyone else. This album has such tasteful playing by all the members, the sounds of all the instruments and the vocals are just so right on, everything is arranged so well that it lets them lay it all out and go for things that probably should not have worked, but did.
4.9/5
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Does anybody make non-boring music anymore?
So I just went through a couple of new CDs, and while neither was bad in any way, they were both just plain boring.
Tyler Ramsey's "A Long Dream About Swimming Across the Sea" starts off okay with the title track. Its the kind of opener that piques your interest and has you thinking that the album could possibly pick up steam. Much to the listener's chagrin, it does just the opposite. It is pretty in parts and he has a good "sound" but there isn't anything remotely catchy for the rest of the album. I found myself having no idea if songs had switched, I even tried to listen to the lyrics but found myself not paying attention faster than an 8th grader in math class with ADD sitting across from the hot girl who has a bit of her panties showing. Its great background music. Its not worth paying any money for. The title track is a borderline downloadable track that might fit nicely on a mix cd that some college guy makes for the girl he has a stupid crush on.
The Constantines new album, Kensington Heights, is a slight step up in the interstingness factor and even has a song that I might, in theory, pay actual money for, New King. The rest of the CD is moderately catchy, although not much of anything that I would ever find myself thinking "oh yeah, that Constantines album, I should listen to that." Again, they have a good sound, but seem to just have a total inability to write a catchy song. Maybe its always been like this, but recently I've noticed a major trend of bands that concentrate on forging their "sound" and forget that they need to write good songs. I think its mostly due to the major success of "indie" acts that were mostly succesful because of their "sound". Bands like Iron & Wine, My Morning Jacket, The Arcade Fire and even to an extent, post The Bends Radiohead. The thing that these newer bands have forgotten is that those bands wrote a lot of really fucking good songs.
Your sound can only take you so far. An album that sounds like a really great producer took several really bad tracks and said "I'm going to make these songs as good as they can possiby be given their limitations" holds no interest for me. At some point in time these "fucking awesome bands you've never heard of" have to write actual good songs. I don't really give a shit how much you sound like you're peacefully playing your guitar by the river and reminding me of lost high school loves, I will stop paying attention and starting looking at facebook while listening to fucking Nelly if you don't write something that is at least moderately catchy. These are albums full of filler. The songs that many bands use to segue from their hits and build up tension. But tension just sucks if there is no release and these bands apparently can't write songs good enough for the release. They provide lots of fodder for indie kids to make mix cds that show off how awesome their musical knowledge is, but for me, I'll look elsewhere.
Additionally, throw the new M83 album, Saturdays = Youth, in that camp of great sound and a lot of really fucking boring songs.
http://www.live4ever.us/mp3s/solvemymystery_demo.mp3
Tyler Ramsey's "A Long Dream About Swimming Across the Sea" starts off okay with the title track. Its the kind of opener that piques your interest and has you thinking that the album could possibly pick up steam. Much to the listener's chagrin, it does just the opposite. It is pretty in parts and he has a good "sound" but there isn't anything remotely catchy for the rest of the album. I found myself having no idea if songs had switched, I even tried to listen to the lyrics but found myself not paying attention faster than an 8th grader in math class with ADD sitting across from the hot girl who has a bit of her panties showing. Its great background music. Its not worth paying any money for. The title track is a borderline downloadable track that might fit nicely on a mix cd that some college guy makes for the girl he has a stupid crush on.
The Constantines new album, Kensington Heights, is a slight step up in the interstingness factor and even has a song that I might, in theory, pay actual money for, New King. The rest of the CD is moderately catchy, although not much of anything that I would ever find myself thinking "oh yeah, that Constantines album, I should listen to that." Again, they have a good sound, but seem to just have a total inability to write a catchy song. Maybe its always been like this, but recently I've noticed a major trend of bands that concentrate on forging their "sound" and forget that they need to write good songs. I think its mostly due to the major success of "indie" acts that were mostly succesful because of their "sound". Bands like Iron & Wine, My Morning Jacket, The Arcade Fire and even to an extent, post The Bends Radiohead. The thing that these newer bands have forgotten is that those bands wrote a lot of really fucking good songs.
Your sound can only take you so far. An album that sounds like a really great producer took several really bad tracks and said "I'm going to make these songs as good as they can possiby be given their limitations" holds no interest for me. At some point in time these "fucking awesome bands you've never heard of" have to write actual good songs. I don't really give a shit how much you sound like you're peacefully playing your guitar by the river and reminding me of lost high school loves, I will stop paying attention and starting looking at facebook while listening to fucking Nelly if you don't write something that is at least moderately catchy. These are albums full of filler. The songs that many bands use to segue from their hits and build up tension. But tension just sucks if there is no release and these bands apparently can't write songs good enough for the release. They provide lots of fodder for indie kids to make mix cds that show off how awesome their musical knowledge is, but for me, I'll look elsewhere.
Additionally, throw the new M83 album, Saturdays = Youth, in that camp of great sound and a lot of really fucking boring songs.
http://www.live4ever.us/mp3s/solvemymystery_demo.mp3
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
8 Free agents for the Braves to watch
Here is a list of FAs (some might have signed extensions since the list I looked at was last updated) I think the Braves should look at after this year. Followed is a max (in millions) I'd pay if I were Frank Wren.
1) Mark Teixeira. Yes, the Braves would love to have him, but so would the Yankees and Mets (and to a lesser extent Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners and Angels). I'd go up to 23 mill for Tex at 6 years max. I think he goes 27 mill for 6.
2) C.C. Sabbathia. His struggles so far this year might drop his salary some, but he'll still get at least 4 years and 20 million. I don't see the Mets going for him, paying 50 Mill combined for two left handed SPs in two long term deals locks them up a lot. The Yankess could be desperate for him, especially with their young pitchers struggling and a lot of their older pitchers fading. I'd go 20 Mill 4 years max. I think he goes 22 mill 5 years.
3) Jim Thome. He hasn't played first in a while and wasn't that good when he did play there. But he's an OPS machine you can almost put in stone for .950 OPS. He'd bring power and also get on base for Francouer, McCann and the rest of the bottom of the lineup. 12-15 mill in a 3 year deal, depending on his season this year. I think he goes for around that price, problem might be him wanting a 4th or 5th year, which at his age is questionable.
4) Adam Dunn. Underrated because his BA is low, but he does two things, hit for power and walk. He'd essentially be Andruw when Andruw was in his offensive prime and that formula scored a lot of runs. Don't know what he would be like at 1B, but he's played over 100 games there. I'd look for his HR to drop (bigger pitcher's park) but his RBIs and Runs to jump dramatically (much better lineup). 12 mill 4 year.
5) Jeff Kent. Don't know how willing he'd be to move to 1B, but he'd likely go from a below average defensive 2B to an above average defensive 1B. He's played over 100 games at 1B, although in many of those he came in as a PH and stayed in at 1B in a double switch. He's still a productive bat and he has experience protecting big time OPS guys. 10 mill 2 years. 8 mill 3 years
6) Pat Burrell. Gets a lot of flack, but he's a productive bat. He could have a huge year that would likely put what he would get in the FA market out of whack with his real value. Played 58 games in 2000 at 1B. 12 mill 4 years
7) Frank Thomas. He's getting up there in years, but could serve as a productive bridge to the Braves prospects if he could be had for a short term contract. it will be interesting to see how his being cut from the Blue Jays plays out. 8-10 Mill in a one year contract.
8) Oliver Perez. I think he's turned the corner, although he'll always be prone to bouts of occasional wildness. I don't see the mets letting him go though. 15 mill 4 years.
I'd really look to target one of Thome, Dunn and Kent. I think CC and Tex will get the two big bidders off the table and open up the Braves, who get the big contracts of Hampton, Glavine and Teixiera off the books. I don't like the looks of the SP FA market this year, although there are some intriguing names. I look for the Braves to possibly address the rotation via trade.
1) Mark Teixeira. Yes, the Braves would love to have him, but so would the Yankees and Mets (and to a lesser extent Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners and Angels). I'd go up to 23 mill for Tex at 6 years max. I think he goes 27 mill for 6.
2) C.C. Sabbathia. His struggles so far this year might drop his salary some, but he'll still get at least 4 years and 20 million. I don't see the Mets going for him, paying 50 Mill combined for two left handed SPs in two long term deals locks them up a lot. The Yankess could be desperate for him, especially with their young pitchers struggling and a lot of their older pitchers fading. I'd go 20 Mill 4 years max. I think he goes 22 mill 5 years.
3) Jim Thome. He hasn't played first in a while and wasn't that good when he did play there. But he's an OPS machine you can almost put in stone for .950 OPS. He'd bring power and also get on base for Francouer, McCann and the rest of the bottom of the lineup. 12-15 mill in a 3 year deal, depending on his season this year. I think he goes for around that price, problem might be him wanting a 4th or 5th year, which at his age is questionable.
4) Adam Dunn. Underrated because his BA is low, but he does two things, hit for power and walk. He'd essentially be Andruw when Andruw was in his offensive prime and that formula scored a lot of runs. Don't know what he would be like at 1B, but he's played over 100 games there. I'd look for his HR to drop (bigger pitcher's park) but his RBIs and Runs to jump dramatically (much better lineup). 12 mill 4 year.
5) Jeff Kent. Don't know how willing he'd be to move to 1B, but he'd likely go from a below average defensive 2B to an above average defensive 1B. He's played over 100 games at 1B, although in many of those he came in as a PH and stayed in at 1B in a double switch. He's still a productive bat and he has experience protecting big time OPS guys. 10 mill 2 years. 8 mill 3 years
6) Pat Burrell. Gets a lot of flack, but he's a productive bat. He could have a huge year that would likely put what he would get in the FA market out of whack with his real value. Played 58 games in 2000 at 1B. 12 mill 4 years
7) Frank Thomas. He's getting up there in years, but could serve as a productive bridge to the Braves prospects if he could be had for a short term contract. it will be interesting to see how his being cut from the Blue Jays plays out. 8-10 Mill in a one year contract.
8) Oliver Perez. I think he's turned the corner, although he'll always be prone to bouts of occasional wildness. I don't see the mets letting him go though. 15 mill 4 years.
I'd really look to target one of Thome, Dunn and Kent. I think CC and Tex will get the two big bidders off the table and open up the Braves, who get the big contracts of Hampton, Glavine and Teixiera off the books. I don't like the looks of the SP FA market this year, although there are some intriguing names. I look for the Braves to possibly address the rotation via trade.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Tomorrow Smoltz Kicks Down the Door to Cooperstown
He has more post-season wins than any pitcher in baseball history. He is the only pitcher in MLB history with 200 wins and 150 saves. Tomorrow he'll add the final touch that makes him a guaranteed first ballot hall of famer, his 3,000th strikeout.
He'll become the 6th fastest pitcher to 3,000 Ks (in terms of innings pitched), behind only Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens. In so doing he'll put himself in position to possibly enter the conversation for best pitcher of our time. His postseason success and consistently will let him pass Curt Schilling. Steroids will help him pass Roger Clemens. That leaves Glavine, Maddux, Unit and Pedro as his main competition for the title. With all four of those pitchers no longer pitching like they once did and Smoltz pitching as well or better than he ever has, the potential is at least there for Smoltz to pass them. He'd likely need 3 good seasons, a championship where he dominated in the postseason and a lot of wins and strikeouts, and even then he'd likely be behind Maddux. What holds him back (4 seasons of closing) also makes him the most intriguing candidate. Starting and closing are two entirely different roles and nother pitcher has shown like Smoltz to be dominant in both roles. Eckersley was a good starting pitcher, but he wasn't nearly as dominant as Smoltz has been. However, he likely lost 700 Ks and 60 wins in his four years of closing (though he likely would have missed more time due to injury if he had started those years). With those stats, he'd be looking at 4000 Ks and 300 wins.
Maddux will almost certainly be considered the greatest pitcher of our era (thanks to Clemens use of PEDs), but I think Smoltz should at least be in the conversation along with Pedro and Randy Johnson. While Pedro wins in ERA, Maddux has him in wins, Ks (surprisingly maddux has over 200 more Ks than Pedro) and gets credit for being the best fielder of his position of our time. Smoltz and Pedro are pretty close, and I think that if Smoltz continues to pitch well he'll edge Pedro. Randy Johnson is likely #2, as he edges Smoltz and Pedro in ERA, Wins and Ks (by a lot), being 70 wins behind Maddux is likely decisive, but its close. Smoltz could likely come close with a few more dominant years (assuming Randy doesn't do much from here out). However, I think Randy is closer to Maddux than Smoltz is to Randy.
He'll become the 6th fastest pitcher to 3,000 Ks (in terms of innings pitched), behind only Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens. In so doing he'll put himself in position to possibly enter the conversation for best pitcher of our time. His postseason success and consistently will let him pass Curt Schilling. Steroids will help him pass Roger Clemens. That leaves Glavine, Maddux, Unit and Pedro as his main competition for the title. With all four of those pitchers no longer pitching like they once did and Smoltz pitching as well or better than he ever has, the potential is at least there for Smoltz to pass them. He'd likely need 3 good seasons, a championship where he dominated in the postseason and a lot of wins and strikeouts, and even then he'd likely be behind Maddux. What holds him back (4 seasons of closing) also makes him the most intriguing candidate. Starting and closing are two entirely different roles and nother pitcher has shown like Smoltz to be dominant in both roles. Eckersley was a good starting pitcher, but he wasn't nearly as dominant as Smoltz has been. However, he likely lost 700 Ks and 60 wins in his four years of closing (though he likely would have missed more time due to injury if he had started those years). With those stats, he'd be looking at 4000 Ks and 300 wins.
Maddux will almost certainly be considered the greatest pitcher of our era (thanks to Clemens use of PEDs), but I think Smoltz should at least be in the conversation along with Pedro and Randy Johnson. While Pedro wins in ERA, Maddux has him in wins, Ks (surprisingly maddux has over 200 more Ks than Pedro) and gets credit for being the best fielder of his position of our time. Smoltz and Pedro are pretty close, and I think that if Smoltz continues to pitch well he'll edge Pedro. Randy Johnson is likely #2, as he edges Smoltz and Pedro in ERA, Wins and Ks (by a lot), being 70 wins behind Maddux is likely decisive, but its close. Smoltz could likely come close with a few more dominant years (assuming Randy doesn't do much from here out). However, I think Randy is closer to Maddux than Smoltz is to Randy.
Would MLB allow this?
So I’m sitting in my derivatives class and we’re studying credit swaps and I was also thinking about the recent injury problems the braves had undergone. The two topics merged in my mind and I started to wonder if you could trade a player and only receive in return something if some other event were to occur (for instance your closer going on the DL).
The example I came up with in my mind was the following: The Braves trade Tyler Yates to the Pirates. In return they receive nothing immediately. What they do receive is that in the event that Soriano is evaluated by an independent physician (agreed to by both teams) and the physician agrees he should be out for say 2 months, the Braves receive the rights to one player out of some pool of relievers (likely including tyler yates himself). This would be win-win. The Pirates get Yates, possibly for nothing, if Soriano stays relatively healthy. Even if Soriano goes down halfway through the season, they got Yates for free for a while. The Braves get to trade a reliever that was out of options and while they may not receive anything, they have the comfort of knowing that if Soriano went down they wouldn’t have to go around trying to desperately make a trade for bullpen depth. If Atlanta’s bullpen is fully healthy, Yates doesn’t have all that much value, however, in the event of injuries his value increases dramatically. The Pirates get a power arm for potentially nothing, and since they wouldn’t send him to the minors, the options concern isn’t the same for them.
Don’t know that MLB would ever allow it or that GMs would be advernturous enough to try it, but some food for thought.
The example I came up with in my mind was the following: The Braves trade Tyler Yates to the Pirates. In return they receive nothing immediately. What they do receive is that in the event that Soriano is evaluated by an independent physician (agreed to by both teams) and the physician agrees he should be out for say 2 months, the Braves receive the rights to one player out of some pool of relievers (likely including tyler yates himself). This would be win-win. The Pirates get Yates, possibly for nothing, if Soriano stays relatively healthy. Even if Soriano goes down halfway through the season, they got Yates for free for a while. The Braves get to trade a reliever that was out of options and while they may not receive anything, they have the comfort of knowing that if Soriano went down they wouldn’t have to go around trying to desperately make a trade for bullpen depth. If Atlanta’s bullpen is fully healthy, Yates doesn’t have all that much value, however, in the event of injuries his value increases dramatically. The Pirates get a power arm for potentially nothing, and since they wouldn’t send him to the minors, the options concern isn’t the same for them.
Don’t know that MLB would ever allow it or that GMs would be advernturous enough to try it, but some food for thought.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
I guess its just what we needed
Since Bobby called the team meeting the Braves are now 4-0 and seem to be, at least mentally, a completely different team, despite being the most injury depleted they’ve been all year.
Couldn’t have asked for a better outcome today. Jair goes 7 strong, saving the bullpen, only giving up 1, continuing his confidence growth. The four hitters that had been scuffling a bit (Tex, K-Jo, Frenchy, Kotsay) all had big days at the plate. The Braves
K-Jo reached base three times, scoring each time, including a big time homer. Looks like he’s starting to really get his confidence back. He also made a great defensive play going to his backhand side, which is where he had problems defensively last year and early this year. Tex had 3 RBIs including the knockout punch in the decisive 8th. Getting K-Jo and Tex hot around the so far sizzling Escobar and Chipper would really make the top of this order impossible to pitch to.
Blaine Boyer came in with just one run lead. He allowed a single to Pierre, who then stole second and third, but he slammed the dorr right there and continued to show that he’s going to be a big part of this bullpen going forward. The kid has closer stuff if he can continue to improve his control. I believe he still has the lowerst BAA of any qualifying reliever in the NL.
With Glavine down, we needed some people to step up and both Chucky and Jurjjens did. Jurjjens and escobar are quickly making wren look like a genius, as the trade of renteria, saving money, getting a pitcher the Tigers desperately need right now and a top flight CF prospect (Gorkyz Hernandez) is looking like a master stroke.
The Braves have a long way to go before they are back to full strength and I don’t want to make too big of a deal out of just 4 wins, but mentally this had to be huge for them.
Couldn’t have asked for a better outcome today. Jair goes 7 strong, saving the bullpen, only giving up 1, continuing his confidence growth. The four hitters that had been scuffling a bit (Tex, K-Jo, Frenchy, Kotsay) all had big days at the plate. The Braves
K-Jo reached base three times, scoring each time, including a big time homer. Looks like he’s starting to really get his confidence back. He also made a great defensive play going to his backhand side, which is where he had problems defensively last year and early this year. Tex had 3 RBIs including the knockout punch in the decisive 8th. Getting K-Jo and Tex hot around the so far sizzling Escobar and Chipper would really make the top of this order impossible to pitch to.
Blaine Boyer came in with just one run lead. He allowed a single to Pierre, who then stole second and third, but he slammed the dorr right there and continued to show that he’s going to be a big part of this bullpen going forward. The kid has closer stuff if he can continue to improve his control. I believe he still has the lowerst BAA of any qualifying reliever in the NL.
With Glavine down, we needed some people to step up and both Chucky and Jurjjens did. Jurjjens and escobar are quickly making wren look like a genius, as the trade of renteria, saving money, getting a pitcher the Tigers desperately need right now and a top flight CF prospect (Gorkyz Hernandez) is looking like a master stroke.
The Braves have a long way to go before they are back to full strength and I don’t want to make too big of a deal out of just 4 wins, but mentally this had to be huge for them.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
homer/double ratio and steriods
In the last post I made a point about one clue to suggest Chipper is not on PEDs is that his homerun/double ratio has been very stable throughout his career.
For example, lets look at Barry Bonds. Up until 1998, Barry’s homerun/double ratio had been relatively stable. In 1998, Barry had 44 doubles to only 37 homers. In 1999, Barry was injured, and many people believe this is when he started taking steriods, although reports differ on exactly when during this year he did. However, a lot of people agree that he wasn't on steroids in 1998 and he was at some point in early 1999. In '99 Barry’s homerun/double ratio was 34/20. This in and of itself wouldn’t be a huge one year swing, especially as his number of plate appearances that year was smaller. But it marked a point of Barry’s 8 best years (where he won 4 MVPs and was second another time), when in no year was his homerun/double ratio anywhere close to even (what it had basically been pre-1999). His closest homer/double ratio during that period was 46/31. The split was as big as 73/32.
On to other confirmed steriods users, Rafael Palmeiro, who is basically the poster boy for this theory. 1998 he had an astounding 41 doubles v. only 8 homers. In fact up until 1995, Palmeiro never hit more homers than doubles in any season and between 1997 and 2004 he never hit more doubles than homers.
Ken Caminiti, up until 1996 had a relatively stable ratio of 2 doubles per homerun. Typical gap power. Then he miraculously began hitting just as many homers as doubles for the rest of his career.
Frank Thomas, a player who most believe is clean (the guy was gigantic all the way back in high school) has maintained a pretty stable 1-1 Homers/doubles ratio throughout his career as well.
While these are just a few anecdotal cases, the theory does seem to be backed up by the numbers. The theory is that steriods don’t help you square up the ball (most doubles are well hit balls that lack a little power or else would be homers). Thus being unnaturally strong turns a lot of would be doubles into homers. It also may turn a few singles into doubles as well, but that effect is complicated by the fact that the hitter might have just started being more selctive and thus squaring up more hits.
Its not a perfect theory and guys like David Wright and Chipper Jones may very well be on steroids, but the double theory would seem to say they just square up a lot of balls.
For example, lets look at Barry Bonds. Up until 1998, Barry’s homerun/double ratio had been relatively stable. In 1998, Barry had 44 doubles to only 37 homers. In 1999, Barry was injured, and many people believe this is when he started taking steriods, although reports differ on exactly when during this year he did. However, a lot of people agree that he wasn't on steroids in 1998 and he was at some point in early 1999. In '99 Barry’s homerun/double ratio was 34/20. This in and of itself wouldn’t be a huge one year swing, especially as his number of plate appearances that year was smaller. But it marked a point of Barry’s 8 best years (where he won 4 MVPs and was second another time), when in no year was his homerun/double ratio anywhere close to even (what it had basically been pre-1999). His closest homer/double ratio during that period was 46/31. The split was as big as 73/32.
On to other confirmed steriods users, Rafael Palmeiro, who is basically the poster boy for this theory. 1998 he had an astounding 41 doubles v. only 8 homers. In fact up until 1995, Palmeiro never hit more homers than doubles in any season and between 1997 and 2004 he never hit more doubles than homers.
Ken Caminiti, up until 1996 had a relatively stable ratio of 2 doubles per homerun. Typical gap power. Then he miraculously began hitting just as many homers as doubles for the rest of his career.
Frank Thomas, a player who most believe is clean (the guy was gigantic all the way back in high school) has maintained a pretty stable 1-1 Homers/doubles ratio throughout his career as well.
While these are just a few anecdotal cases, the theory does seem to be backed up by the numbers. The theory is that steriods don’t help you square up the ball (most doubles are well hit balls that lack a little power or else would be homers). Thus being unnaturally strong turns a lot of would be doubles into homers. It also may turn a few singles into doubles as well, but that effect is complicated by the fact that the hitter might have just started being more selctive and thus squaring up more hits.
Its not a perfect theory and guys like David Wright and Chipper Jones may very well be on steroids, but the double theory would seem to say they just square up a lot of balls.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Okay Chipper, this is getting ridiculous.
Back to back two homer games? Really?
so far this year Jones has 6 homers, is batting .446, has 18 RBIS, 16 runs, .478 OBP, .720 Slug in just 16 games.
That's a pace for 60 homers, 180 RBIs.
This continues to make my point that Chipper, not Teixiera is the best hitter on the Braves. And its not even remotely close.
In sadder news, apparently Tom Glavine's hammy tightened up on him (he was feeling really good prior) and he's heading to the DL for this first time in his 22 year career.
Like I said, if the offense can hit like they're supposed to (like they have the last two games) and this team can tread water until its healthy, they will be fine. However, they can't get in too big of a hole right now. Apparently Chipper is going to make sure that doesn't happen, all by himself if need be.
so far this year Jones has 6 homers, is batting .446, has 18 RBIS, 16 runs, .478 OBP, .720 Slug in just 16 games.
That's a pace for 60 homers, 180 RBIs.
This continues to make my point that Chipper, not Teixiera is the best hitter on the Braves. And its not even remotely close.
In sadder news, apparently Tom Glavine's hammy tightened up on him (he was feeling really good prior) and he's heading to the DL for this first time in his 22 year career.
Like I said, if the offense can hit like they're supposed to (like they have the last two games) and this team can tread water until its healthy, they will be fine. However, they can't get in too big of a hole right now. Apparently Chipper is going to make sure that doesn't happen, all by himself if need be.
Chipper and Smoltz since July '06
So David O'Brien recently compiled what these two ageless wonders have done since July '06.
Entire Blog here:
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2008/04/18/how_will_andruw.html
"But the most amazing stats with Chipper began in the middle of the 2006 season, after he got over some early injuries and hit a hot streak that really has continued pretty much unabated, save for a cool week here or a DL stint there.
It began after a slump in which he batted just .222 with four homers and 11 RBis in 29 games during May 21-June 23, 2006.
Here’s what he’s done in 200 games since then, and no, these are not typos:
In his past 200 games, since June 24, 2006, Chipper has hit .358 (273-for-763) with 61 doubles, 6 triples, 52 homers, 167 RBI, 113 walks, 104 strikeouts, a .437 OBP and a .658 slugging percentage.
And in 102 road games during that period he’s hit .376 (153-for-407) with 36 doubles, 5 triples, 29 homers, 86 RBI, a .445 OBP and a .703 slugging percentage. That’s a 1.148 OPS in his past 102 road games. Astounding."
and for smoltz?:
"One last stat: In his past 53 starts, since July 2006, Smoltz is 29-12 with a 3.05 ERA and 336 strikeouts (with 81 walks) in 342-2/3 innings."
I mean those stats, especially Chipper's, almost make you wonder about PEDs. However, I'd imagine niehter would be stupid enough to still be doing them and they are both having two of their finest starts ever. Additionally, the amount of doubles tends to indicate that its pure great hitting. Steriods don't help you square the ball up, they just help you hit the balls you do square up out. If you look at Barry Bonds, what really changed when he supposedly went on the juice was that the doubles and singles he used to hit started turning into homers. Chipper's doubles/homerun ratio hasn't dramatically increased, he's just squaring the ball up more consistently than he ever has.
In the past couple of years, I think they both have went from likely hall of famers, to virtual locks.
Entire Blog here:
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2008/04/18/how_will_andruw.html
"But the most amazing stats with Chipper began in the middle of the 2006 season, after he got over some early injuries and hit a hot streak that really has continued pretty much unabated, save for a cool week here or a DL stint there.
It began after a slump in which he batted just .222 with four homers and 11 RBis in 29 games during May 21-June 23, 2006.
Here’s what he’s done in 200 games since then, and no, these are not typos:
In his past 200 games, since June 24, 2006, Chipper has hit .358 (273-for-763) with 61 doubles, 6 triples, 52 homers, 167 RBI, 113 walks, 104 strikeouts, a .437 OBP and a .658 slugging percentage.
And in 102 road games during that period he’s hit .376 (153-for-407) with 36 doubles, 5 triples, 29 homers, 86 RBI, a .445 OBP and a .703 slugging percentage. That’s a 1.148 OPS in his past 102 road games. Astounding."
and for smoltz?:
"One last stat: In his past 53 starts, since July 2006, Smoltz is 29-12 with a 3.05 ERA and 336 strikeouts (with 81 walks) in 342-2/3 innings."
I mean those stats, especially Chipper's, almost make you wonder about PEDs. However, I'd imagine niehter would be stupid enough to still be doing them and they are both having two of their finest starts ever. Additionally, the amount of doubles tends to indicate that its pure great hitting. Steriods don't help you square the ball up, they just help you hit the balls you do square up out. If you look at Barry Bonds, what really changed when he supposedly went on the juice was that the doubles and singles he used to hit started turning into homers. Chipper's doubles/homerun ratio hasn't dramatically increased, he's just squaring the ball up more consistently than he ever has.
In the past couple of years, I think they both have went from likely hall of famers, to virtual locks.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Mojo - music sharing done right
http://www.deusty.com/software/windows.php
Desuty took a look at how most file sharing systems were being shut down and realized that no user of a local area network file sharing system has ever been sued. There is still internet sharing, but you have to approve the individual before he/she has access to your msuic library. Typically the way individual are caught is that the RIAA will upload copyrighted material from your computer (an infraction) and then they can get a subpeona to search your computer and also bust you on all the illegally downloaded content.
This will likely get shut down one day, but there is virtually no risk that end users will be sued (which is an overblown prospect anyway, as most suits are being dismissed with prejudice these days).
If you're on the cavalier network, I'm FJR2E.
Desuty took a look at how most file sharing systems were being shut down and realized that no user of a local area network file sharing system has ever been sued. There is still internet sharing, but you have to approve the individual before he/she has access to your msuic library. Typically the way individual are caught is that the RIAA will upload copyrighted material from your computer (an infraction) and then they can get a subpeona to search your computer and also bust you on all the illegally downloaded content.
This will likely get shut down one day, but there is virtually no risk that end users will be sued (which is an overblown prospect anyway, as most suits are being dismissed with prejudice these days).
If you're on the cavalier network, I'm FJR2E.
The Guardian again has it all wrong
So Noel Gallagher is blaming the choice of Jay-Z for the poor sales at Glastonbury. The Guardian basically calls him an irrelevant idiot and continues to bash him and then suggests he's a racist.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/music/2008/04/gallagher_knows_nothing_about.html
It may or may not be the choice of Jay-Z that is causing the low concert sales, but the article makes little sense otherwise. First, in order to make a measure of concert popularity, it looks at singles, where they point out that Jay-Z has had two number one singles in the UK since Oasis last did, and that is when you count Umbrella, which I imagine a good majority of fans don't consider a Jay-Z track, rightly attributing the majority of the success to Rihanna. Also, nevermind that The Importance of Being Idle was Oasis's last album single to be released (in the interim there has only been Lord Don't Slow Me Down, a barely pushed single that accompanied a DVD). The Guardian overlooks that, when it comes to concert ticket sales in the UK, Oasis is right there with Muse and Radiohead in the ability to consistently draw.
The article quickly devolves into "I love Jay-Z and I think Oasis are shite". Which is a fine opinion to have, but its presented as if its some sort of unbiased take on things.
Both times Oasis headlined Glastonbury, it sold out in minutes. Regardless of your opinion of Oasis, to say he "knows nothing about Glasto" is pure idiocy. There are any number of reasons why Glasto is selling much slower, and someone who has no proven track record of selling out huge venues in the UK being the headliner is not that crazy of an opinion to have.
What is even more worrisome is that if a white rocker says he doesn't like hip-hop, he is inevitably labelled as a racist. I love HOVA. But do I think if Noel Gallagher doesn't think he should headline, that makes him a racist? nah. Does anybody think that if say, Ben Harper had been the headliner (an artist with a proven track record of selling tickets in the UK) Noel would have said anything? If it was Eminem, do you think he would have said the same thing? Absolutely.
And for his UK popularity argument, I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that the Oasis album due out this summer outsales anything Jay-Z has done in the UK ever. Its just a fact that, in the UK, even today, Oasis is widely considered the "national band". I mean they once had a charting EP that was nothing but Noel and Liam arguing.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/music/2008/04/gallagher_knows_nothing_about.html
It may or may not be the choice of Jay-Z that is causing the low concert sales, but the article makes little sense otherwise. First, in order to make a measure of concert popularity, it looks at singles, where they point out that Jay-Z has had two number one singles in the UK since Oasis last did, and that is when you count Umbrella, which I imagine a good majority of fans don't consider a Jay-Z track, rightly attributing the majority of the success to Rihanna. Also, nevermind that The Importance of Being Idle was Oasis's last album single to be released (in the interim there has only been Lord Don't Slow Me Down, a barely pushed single that accompanied a DVD). The Guardian overlooks that, when it comes to concert ticket sales in the UK, Oasis is right there with Muse and Radiohead in the ability to consistently draw.
The article quickly devolves into "I love Jay-Z and I think Oasis are shite". Which is a fine opinion to have, but its presented as if its some sort of unbiased take on things.
Both times Oasis headlined Glastonbury, it sold out in minutes. Regardless of your opinion of Oasis, to say he "knows nothing about Glasto" is pure idiocy. There are any number of reasons why Glasto is selling much slower, and someone who has no proven track record of selling out huge venues in the UK being the headliner is not that crazy of an opinion to have.
What is even more worrisome is that if a white rocker says he doesn't like hip-hop, he is inevitably labelled as a racist. I love HOVA. But do I think if Noel Gallagher doesn't think he should headline, that makes him a racist? nah. Does anybody think that if say, Ben Harper had been the headliner (an artist with a proven track record of selling tickets in the UK) Noel would have said anything? If it was Eminem, do you think he would have said the same thing? Absolutely.
And for his UK popularity argument, I'd be willing to bet a lot of money that the Oasis album due out this summer outsales anything Jay-Z has done in the UK ever. Its just a fact that, in the UK, even today, Oasis is widely considered the "national band". I mean they once had a charting EP that was nothing but Noel and Liam arguing.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
ugh
Not much to say other than that. On a day we learn Moylan goes on the DL there is this just travesty of a game. No offense, walking two runs in.
This team needs a wake up call and a little good luck. I just hope they can tread water and stay near .500 until they get healthy.
This team needs a wake up call and a little good luck. I just hope they can tread water and stay near .500 until they get healthy.
The Crazy NL
So I'm sure everybody would have picked the NL Central to have the best composite record in the NL. I'm sure everybody would have guessed that Arizona would have scored 2 runs per game more than the Mets and a whopping 30 more total runs than the Dodgers and have the largest run differntial of any team in baseball (after being the only team to make the playoffs with a negative run differntial last year). I'm sure everybody had the new look Dodgers in last place in the NL West, tied for the 3rd worst record in baseball. I'm sure everybody had the Marlins leading the East and the Cardinals leading the Central.
Not that things are any more sane in the AL, where Cleveland and Detroit are in next to last and last place in the Central and your division leaders are Baltimore, KC and Oakland.
What does this all mean? Not be obvious or anything, but it means its early.
Sticking to the NL:
Team that is "legit":
Arizona - They won't continue to be this good, but if this team scores runs, they're going to be hard to beat. In the early running, it definitely looks like they're going to score runs. However, as a team they don't get on base a whole lot and they strike out a lot, which could lead to some really cold streaks down the road. I like their pitching, both bullpen and starting rotation.
Teams that will be fine:
Atlanta - I still hold that by the end of the season they will score the most runs in the NL and I don't even think it will be close. Jeff Francoeur might be the easiest out in the lineup, and he's a guy who has kncoked in 100, hit nearly .300 and will hit around 30 homers this year. Its hard to tell what to make of the starting pitching right now. Reports are saying that Glavine's hamstring is fine. He has never gone on the DL, and although he's still old, there isn't really any reason to believe he'll miss much time. Jurjjens has been fine as a #4 starter and I think he can continue to do well in that role. Hudson has been everything you can ask of a #1. So, Ithink the biggest question marks are who is the #5 and how much will the Braves get out of Smoltz. Smoltz has been dominant when he's pitched, but at this point, its not clear if he can pitch 200 innings. If he gets to around 200, I think everything is fine and it doesn't matter who the 5th is, as the top 4 will win more than enough games behind that offense.
The bullpen is a concern obviously, as I addressed it last blog and nothing has really changed. If it can ever get healthy and can get into establish roles of Moylan/Gonzalez -> Soriano, it will be more than fine.
The Braves have outscored their opponents by over a run per game, and while the bullpen has blown a lot of 1 run games, you have to believe that will even out at least somewhat. The offense has been very good and Texieria hasn't even started hitting yet. THe only worry is that the one run nightmare becomes a mental block where the team chokes in those situations. However, with Bobby cox and all the veterans who are viewing this as one of their last good shots, I don't see that happening.
Colorado - First, let me say by "fine" I mean they will contend for the wildcard, If Arizona keeps this up, they're going to run away from this division, which is much weaker than people think. Their lineup is too good not to score runs and that is their main problem thus far. The pitching will hold them back, but they have a very good bullpen and they'll be right there.
Cincinnatti - I think they have good young pitching, anchored by a big time ace, they're going to score a lot of runs and they should have a good enough bullpen.
Teams that could go either way:
The Mets - I wanted to put them in the teams that will be fine category, but Pedro is out until June and Willie Randolph might be fired if the ship doesn't right itself. Their rotation has more questions behind Johan Santana than the Braves does behind Hudson. Their lineup is nowhere near as good as people think it is. When Moises Alou is out, there are only really two difficult outs. You can find a way to get around Beltran and David Wright. Jose Reyes looks more and more like the bad Jose Reyes every day who doesn't walk, swings at terrible pitches and doesn't play with maximum effort. Carlos Delgado is just a hole in the lineup that you can go to for strikeouts or doubleplays whenever you need them. If the pitching comes together, they'll be right in the division/wildcard race, as the bullpen is good, probably the best in the East and the starting pitching can be very good, if those happen the lineup will score more than enough runs. However, if things get worse before they get better, if Oliver Perez has more outings like he did this week, if the Willie Randolph situation becomes a circus in the NY media, then this team could get itself out of contention in a hurry.
Milwaukee - This team has a lot of power, but they strike out a lot and they don't walk all that much. Not a good recipe for consistent offensive success. If Ben Sheets has a healthy year, they have the pitching up front, but its hard to tell exactly what to make of their bullpen. If Sheets goes down, the bullpen blows up and their offense has lots of 10+ K games, this team will fall behind fast. The Central could be tough with Cincinnatti and Chicago possibly being contenders and Pittsburgh being better this year.
The Dodgers - I'm nowhere near as high on their lineup as most. Andruw Jones will continue to be an 18 million dollar out machine. I think Jeff Kent's bat will slow and the young kids won't be able to hold up under the pressure. They have average/good pitching and their bullpen is very good, but I just don't think they will score a lot of runs in the NL West where you face top flight pitching regularly. I think they'll be right there in the wildcard, but I don't see them really being a very good team, let alone a great team. Joe Torre is great at bringing high priced veterans who haven't played together into a cohesive whole, but this team is a bunch of young players who are trying to find consistency, and I don't know if Torre is the best manager for that. I think he's good with young players if its just a couple, but he has more than a couple here.
The Phillies - They will score a ton of runs, but I HATE their rotation and bullpen. When it starts to heat up in philly, expect a lot of 8-9 games. And in that kind of situation is virtually impossible to predict how it will shake out. Cole Hamels is fragile and Brett Myers was a closer last year, and its roughly 2938754 times worse after those two.
Teams that will be decent, but not in contention:
Pittsburgh: I like their bullpen, their lineup will be average once Adam Laroche inevtiably heats up (notorious slow starter) and they have good young pitching. In the end they don't have enough bullets to play with the big boys, but they may cause havoc in the NL central.
San Diego - They just aren't going to hit nearly enough to win games where Chris Young and Jake Peavy don't throw shutouts. I look for them to be right around .500 they have good Sp and a good bullpen, but no real shot of being any better than that. If Chris Young and/or Jake Peavy go down due to injury, this team could be San Francisco bad.
The bubble is about to burst:
Florida - they've been outscored so far and they've played a weak schedule. Han Ram may be the best player in the NL (right there with a healthy Chipper Jones, Matt Holliday and Johan Santana). Their pitching is about to be absolutely crushed when they start playing Philly, Atlanta and the Mets regularly. I think in the end they are far behind the Nats.
St. Louis - Tony LaRussa will keep them together as long as he can, but at some point the house of cards is going to fold, especially if Pujols' elbow implodes. I think Ankiel will have a hard time making adjustments when pitchers start to get a book on him. The pitching just can't hold up over a long period and the bullpen, while effectively used, isn't all that talented. They'll win the games they should win, but there will be a lot of games where they are just out-talented. They'll be slightly worse than the pirates when it all shakes out.
Not that things are any more sane in the AL, where Cleveland and Detroit are in next to last and last place in the Central and your division leaders are Baltimore, KC and Oakland.
What does this all mean? Not be obvious or anything, but it means its early.
Sticking to the NL:
Team that is "legit":
Arizona - They won't continue to be this good, but if this team scores runs, they're going to be hard to beat. In the early running, it definitely looks like they're going to score runs. However, as a team they don't get on base a whole lot and they strike out a lot, which could lead to some really cold streaks down the road. I like their pitching, both bullpen and starting rotation.
Teams that will be fine:
Atlanta - I still hold that by the end of the season they will score the most runs in the NL and I don't even think it will be close. Jeff Francoeur might be the easiest out in the lineup, and he's a guy who has kncoked in 100, hit nearly .300 and will hit around 30 homers this year. Its hard to tell what to make of the starting pitching right now. Reports are saying that Glavine's hamstring is fine. He has never gone on the DL, and although he's still old, there isn't really any reason to believe he'll miss much time. Jurjjens has been fine as a #4 starter and I think he can continue to do well in that role. Hudson has been everything you can ask of a #1. So, Ithink the biggest question marks are who is the #5 and how much will the Braves get out of Smoltz. Smoltz has been dominant when he's pitched, but at this point, its not clear if he can pitch 200 innings. If he gets to around 200, I think everything is fine and it doesn't matter who the 5th is, as the top 4 will win more than enough games behind that offense.
The bullpen is a concern obviously, as I addressed it last blog and nothing has really changed. If it can ever get healthy and can get into establish roles of Moylan/Gonzalez -> Soriano, it will be more than fine.
The Braves have outscored their opponents by over a run per game, and while the bullpen has blown a lot of 1 run games, you have to believe that will even out at least somewhat. The offense has been very good and Texieria hasn't even started hitting yet. THe only worry is that the one run nightmare becomes a mental block where the team chokes in those situations. However, with Bobby cox and all the veterans who are viewing this as one of their last good shots, I don't see that happening.
Colorado - First, let me say by "fine" I mean they will contend for the wildcard, If Arizona keeps this up, they're going to run away from this division, which is much weaker than people think. Their lineup is too good not to score runs and that is their main problem thus far. The pitching will hold them back, but they have a very good bullpen and they'll be right there.
Cincinnatti - I think they have good young pitching, anchored by a big time ace, they're going to score a lot of runs and they should have a good enough bullpen.
Teams that could go either way:
The Mets - I wanted to put them in the teams that will be fine category, but Pedro is out until June and Willie Randolph might be fired if the ship doesn't right itself. Their rotation has more questions behind Johan Santana than the Braves does behind Hudson. Their lineup is nowhere near as good as people think it is. When Moises Alou is out, there are only really two difficult outs. You can find a way to get around Beltran and David Wright. Jose Reyes looks more and more like the bad Jose Reyes every day who doesn't walk, swings at terrible pitches and doesn't play with maximum effort. Carlos Delgado is just a hole in the lineup that you can go to for strikeouts or doubleplays whenever you need them. If the pitching comes together, they'll be right in the division/wildcard race, as the bullpen is good, probably the best in the East and the starting pitching can be very good, if those happen the lineup will score more than enough runs. However, if things get worse before they get better, if Oliver Perez has more outings like he did this week, if the Willie Randolph situation becomes a circus in the NY media, then this team could get itself out of contention in a hurry.
Milwaukee - This team has a lot of power, but they strike out a lot and they don't walk all that much. Not a good recipe for consistent offensive success. If Ben Sheets has a healthy year, they have the pitching up front, but its hard to tell exactly what to make of their bullpen. If Sheets goes down, the bullpen blows up and their offense has lots of 10+ K games, this team will fall behind fast. The Central could be tough with Cincinnatti and Chicago possibly being contenders and Pittsburgh being better this year.
The Dodgers - I'm nowhere near as high on their lineup as most. Andruw Jones will continue to be an 18 million dollar out machine. I think Jeff Kent's bat will slow and the young kids won't be able to hold up under the pressure. They have average/good pitching and their bullpen is very good, but I just don't think they will score a lot of runs in the NL West where you face top flight pitching regularly. I think they'll be right there in the wildcard, but I don't see them really being a very good team, let alone a great team. Joe Torre is great at bringing high priced veterans who haven't played together into a cohesive whole, but this team is a bunch of young players who are trying to find consistency, and I don't know if Torre is the best manager for that. I think he's good with young players if its just a couple, but he has more than a couple here.
The Phillies - They will score a ton of runs, but I HATE their rotation and bullpen. When it starts to heat up in philly, expect a lot of 8-9 games. And in that kind of situation is virtually impossible to predict how it will shake out. Cole Hamels is fragile and Brett Myers was a closer last year, and its roughly 2938754 times worse after those two.
Teams that will be decent, but not in contention:
Pittsburgh: I like their bullpen, their lineup will be average once Adam Laroche inevtiably heats up (notorious slow starter) and they have good young pitching. In the end they don't have enough bullets to play with the big boys, but they may cause havoc in the NL central.
San Diego - They just aren't going to hit nearly enough to win games where Chris Young and Jake Peavy don't throw shutouts. I look for them to be right around .500 they have good Sp and a good bullpen, but no real shot of being any better than that. If Chris Young and/or Jake Peavy go down due to injury, this team could be San Francisco bad.
The bubble is about to burst:
Florida - they've been outscored so far and they've played a weak schedule. Han Ram may be the best player in the NL (right there with a healthy Chipper Jones, Matt Holliday and Johan Santana). Their pitching is about to be absolutely crushed when they start playing Philly, Atlanta and the Mets regularly. I think in the end they are far behind the Nats.
St. Louis - Tony LaRussa will keep them together as long as he can, but at some point the house of cards is going to fold, especially if Pujols' elbow implodes. I think Ankiel will have a hard time making adjustments when pitchers start to get a book on him. The pitching just can't hold up over a long period and the bullpen, while effectively used, isn't all that talented. They'll win the games they should win, but there will be a lot of games where they are just out-talented. They'll be slightly worse than the pirates when it all shakes out.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Bullpen, Schaeffer, Chuck James
I can't imagine a week in which the Braves swept the Mets as being this bad.
1) Rafael Soriano is on the DL, only Moylan seems comfortable. Now Moylan will be closing along with Manny Acosta. I think this bullpen can be very good, if it all comes together. Mike Gonzalez will be coming back, Moylan has proven himself, Soriano can be dominant, Manny Acosta is very good in the right role (not closing or one of your main set up men). I think Blane Boyer and Chris Resop can also be very very good in the right situation. While the starters have been very good (not withstanding Chuck James' shellacking today), they haven't pitched very deeply, further exacerbating the bullpen's problems. Throw in that fact that the offense has not been consistent and thus keeps putting the bullpen in pressure situations and its just not a recipe for success. This could be a year long problem or it could all sort itself out sometime in the next month or so. However, in order for that to happen, Soriano has to stay relatively healthy after he gets back from the DL, at least until Mike Gonzalez has some time to get back to form, maybe around august.
2) Jordan Schaffer is suspended for HGH.
I can believe the Schafer story. To be honest, I was somewhat suspicious of the huge jump in potential he made over the last year when he jumped from the 27th best prospect to by far the best in the braves system. He had virtually no power whatsoever in his first two years and was considered a mostly speed guy out of high school. Then last year he hits 15 homers and 49 doubles. He had a borderline bad rep as a prima donna, buying a hummer with only a 3rd round draft pick's signing bonus.
Supposedly he has already apologized to his teammates and coaches, which doesn't seem likely if he was actually innocent. Its hard to know exactly how they caught him. There still isn't a reliable drug test for HGH, so its highly doubtful that it was through that avenue.
At this point, I am almost certain that if Kotsay went down late in the season, his replacement would be either Josh Anderson or Gregor Blanco, as I'm relatively certain that Schafer won't see this majors this year.
I wouldn't say its out of the realm of possibility for Schafer to come back and play in center next year, but he would really need to make a full 180. He won't get away with his prima donna ways and people aren't going to write off his brash ways as confidence anymore. At this point, I say its most likely that the braves either sign a vet to a short term contract or make a trade for a guy with 1-2 years left for CF next year. After that I'd say the next most likely guys are Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco, but I don't view either one of those guys as legit every day major league type guys.
3) Chuck James looked really bad today. He had virtually no control. When he wasn't walking or hitting batters, they were killing the ball. If Mike Hampton is ever healthy, Chuck James has still done nothing to show he deserves to be a part of this rotation over Jair Jurjjens. I don't even know if he deserves a rotation spot over Jeff Bennett at this point. He'll likely get at least one more start, and maybe he just couldn't get a feel for the ball in the cold weather. I want Chuck to succeed, as I think he is a big part of this team if not this year, then definitely next. However, he has to be spot on control wise and he has to develop another pitch.
1) Rafael Soriano is on the DL, only Moylan seems comfortable. Now Moylan will be closing along with Manny Acosta. I think this bullpen can be very good, if it all comes together. Mike Gonzalez will be coming back, Moylan has proven himself, Soriano can be dominant, Manny Acosta is very good in the right role (not closing or one of your main set up men). I think Blane Boyer and Chris Resop can also be very very good in the right situation. While the starters have been very good (not withstanding Chuck James' shellacking today), they haven't pitched very deeply, further exacerbating the bullpen's problems. Throw in that fact that the offense has not been consistent and thus keeps putting the bullpen in pressure situations and its just not a recipe for success. This could be a year long problem or it could all sort itself out sometime in the next month or so. However, in order for that to happen, Soriano has to stay relatively healthy after he gets back from the DL, at least until Mike Gonzalez has some time to get back to form, maybe around august.
2) Jordan Schaffer is suspended for HGH.
I can believe the Schafer story. To be honest, I was somewhat suspicious of the huge jump in potential he made over the last year when he jumped from the 27th best prospect to by far the best in the braves system. He had virtually no power whatsoever in his first two years and was considered a mostly speed guy out of high school. Then last year he hits 15 homers and 49 doubles. He had a borderline bad rep as a prima donna, buying a hummer with only a 3rd round draft pick's signing bonus.
Supposedly he has already apologized to his teammates and coaches, which doesn't seem likely if he was actually innocent. Its hard to know exactly how they caught him. There still isn't a reliable drug test for HGH, so its highly doubtful that it was through that avenue.
At this point, I am almost certain that if Kotsay went down late in the season, his replacement would be either Josh Anderson or Gregor Blanco, as I'm relatively certain that Schafer won't see this majors this year.
I wouldn't say its out of the realm of possibility for Schafer to come back and play in center next year, but he would really need to make a full 180. He won't get away with his prima donna ways and people aren't going to write off his brash ways as confidence anymore. At this point, I say its most likely that the braves either sign a vet to a short term contract or make a trade for a guy with 1-2 years left for CF next year. After that I'd say the next most likely guys are Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco, but I don't view either one of those guys as legit every day major league type guys.
3) Chuck James looked really bad today. He had virtually no control. When he wasn't walking or hitting batters, they were killing the ball. If Mike Hampton is ever healthy, Chuck James has still done nothing to show he deserves to be a part of this rotation over Jair Jurjjens. I don't even know if he deserves a rotation spot over Jeff Bennett at this point. He'll likely get at least one more start, and maybe he just couldn't get a feel for the ball in the cold weather. I want Chuck to succeed, as I think he is a big part of this team if not this year, then definitely next. However, he has to be spot on control wise and he has to develop another pitch.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Top 10 things Braves bloggers would do to ruin the Braves, if they had any say
(note: every single move listed here has seriously been put forth at some point or another on the AJC Braves blogs)
10) Trade Kelly Johnson for a middle reliever.
9) Move John Smoltz back to the closer spot and trade Soriano for a middle reliever.
8) Jarrod Saltalamacchia catching, McCann playing first base, Chipper playing first base, Escobar playing third, Joe Borchard playing RF, Martin Prado playing 2nd, Jeff Francoeur playing center, Charlie Morton SP, Brent Lillibridge playing SS, Jordan Scaeffer CF. Seems like the only guy they would leave alone would be Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson is on the team for pinch running duties.
7) All Relief pitchers would pitch two innings, except the closer.
6) Don't trade Renteria (oh wait, now that was a brilliant move they liked all along)
5) Don't trade for Tex (salty will be better this year! and elvis is our SS of the future, wait, that's brent lillibridge, wait that's escobar, can't we just play 3 SS's?)
4) Hudson pitches on 3 days rest, Glavine and Smoltz on 6 days rest, Chuck James on 5.5 days rest, Jurjjens on 3 days rest, Hampton 2 starts per month, Jeff Bennett 1 start per week.
3) Hitters take until they have two strikes, regardless of where the pitch is, except Kelly Johnson, he doesn't hit enough and he walks too much and his OBP is too low.
2) Have Francouer, Escobar, Kotsay, Diaz, Chipper, Prado, Josh Anderson, etc etc try to steal at least 20 bases.
1) Trade the entire Richmond Braves plus Jordan Schaeffer and Brent Lillibridge for Joe Nathan.
10) Trade Kelly Johnson for a middle reliever.
9) Move John Smoltz back to the closer spot and trade Soriano for a middle reliever.
8) Jarrod Saltalamacchia catching, McCann playing first base, Chipper playing first base, Escobar playing third, Joe Borchard playing RF, Martin Prado playing 2nd, Jeff Francoeur playing center, Charlie Morton SP, Brent Lillibridge playing SS, Jordan Scaeffer CF. Seems like the only guy they would leave alone would be Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson is on the team for pinch running duties.
7) All Relief pitchers would pitch two innings, except the closer.
6) Don't trade Renteria (oh wait, now that was a brilliant move they liked all along)
5) Don't trade for Tex (salty will be better this year! and elvis is our SS of the future, wait, that's brent lillibridge, wait that's escobar, can't we just play 3 SS's?)
4) Hudson pitches on 3 days rest, Glavine and Smoltz on 6 days rest, Chuck James on 5.5 days rest, Jurjjens on 3 days rest, Hampton 2 starts per month, Jeff Bennett 1 start per week.
3) Hitters take until they have two strikes, regardless of where the pitch is, except Kelly Johnson, he doesn't hit enough and he walks too much and his OBP is too low.
2) Have Francouer, Escobar, Kotsay, Diaz, Chipper, Prado, Josh Anderson, etc etc try to steal at least 20 bases.
1) Trade the entire Richmond Braves plus Jordan Schaeffer and Brent Lillibridge for Joe Nathan.
Just what we needed
I couldn't have scripted a game to bounce back from the previous two any better. No Errors, no runs allowed by the bullpen, manny acosta came in during a run one game and pitched well, then the offense exploded. Maybe Braves fans can take a deep breath and relax a bit now. This team is going to be fine.
In other news, Pedro is out for 6-8 weeks. It's not the blow that a lot of people think it is. I think Pedro won't be their #2 or even #3 starter this year when healthy, that will be Maine and Perez. What it does do however is gets their really bad 4 and 5 guys more exposed. I bet a few mets fans that Mike Hampton would make more starts than both El Duque and Pedro and I still feel pretty good about that one.
I really see this year's mets as last year's braves. Good Offense, top starters are great, back of the rotation is awful. El Duque, even when healthy is going to kill their bullpen, which isn't that deep to begin with. Perez, I think will mostly be great, but he will have 5-6 starts where he doesn't make it out of the 5th and a couple where he doesn't make it out of the 2nd, just the nature of the beast there. Maine will either not go deep in games all year long or will tire like last year and again, tax the bullpen. Then add in Willie's penchant for having at least three relievers warm up every night that don't get in the game. Pedro and whoever is their 4th and 5th starters for now will also average around 5 and 2/3s maybe.
A lot of Braves fans are hopefully predicting Johan falls on his face. That just isn't going to happen. I predict he wins 24 games, the Cy and the MVP, with 230 plus Ks. However, starters 2-5 will all tax their bullpen. They then limp into the playoffs as a wildcard, Johan gives them a chance in the short series, but the bullpen implodes under the heavy workload it shouldered all year long.
In other news, Pedro is out for 6-8 weeks. It's not the blow that a lot of people think it is. I think Pedro won't be their #2 or even #3 starter this year when healthy, that will be Maine and Perez. What it does do however is gets their really bad 4 and 5 guys more exposed. I bet a few mets fans that Mike Hampton would make more starts than both El Duque and Pedro and I still feel pretty good about that one.
I really see this year's mets as last year's braves. Good Offense, top starters are great, back of the rotation is awful. El Duque, even when healthy is going to kill their bullpen, which isn't that deep to begin with. Perez, I think will mostly be great, but he will have 5-6 starts where he doesn't make it out of the 5th and a couple where he doesn't make it out of the 2nd, just the nature of the beast there. Maine will either not go deep in games all year long or will tire like last year and again, tax the bullpen. Then add in Willie's penchant for having at least three relievers warm up every night that don't get in the game. Pedro and whoever is their 4th and 5th starters for now will also average around 5 and 2/3s maybe.
A lot of Braves fans are hopefully predicting Johan falls on his face. That just isn't going to happen. I predict he wins 24 games, the Cy and the MVP, with 230 plus Ks. However, starters 2-5 will all tax their bullpen. They then limp into the playoffs as a wildcard, Johan gives them a chance in the short series, but the bullpen implodes under the heavy workload it shouldered all year long.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
No Day Games?!
Seriously MLB? I know its a tuesday, but many of the teams playing today are in their home opener. What am I going to watch during communications law today? Reurns of fantasy 411? Its not that good without the sound and I think putting hy headphones in might tip my professor off as to what I'm doing.
Lets just get a reset
this team is out of sorts right now. Its not anything physical (well, except Kelly Johnson, more on that later), its nothing to do with the coaching, the team just doesn't seem to be locked in.
And who can blame them, honestly? They go on the worthwhile, but whirlwind, honor of opening up the Nats new ballpark, fly home at 3 AM, then get up to take on the Pirates in Tommy's return to Atlanta. Add in the excitement of opening baseball for the entire country and then your own home opener. It may just be too much for the Braves to have that intense but quiet focus they were known for during their streak.
I normally hate the early off day during the first couple of games, but they really need this. They need a day off (if nothing else to rest the bullpen after every arm available was used last night). They need a mental reset. Then they need to play two games against the pirates and play them the right way and then get focused for the mets.
I think all the pieces are there for this team to make some noise, but it doesn't matter how many pieces you have if you aren't playing mentally sound baseball, and they just weren't in the first two games.
Now to Kelly. It's obvious Kelly's knee is a bigger deal than he's letting on. He doesn't get the same push off his bad knee and it causes him to come up a little short on balls and leads to errors. I think its hurting his hitting as well, as he can't really get the same lower body drive. I'm not one of those people who wants to platoon him and Prado, but Bobby should just keep him on the bench until its better, save him for pinch hitting or maybe even just DL him and make sure the knee is 100% fine. Kelly can have a gigantic year, he's put a year of second base under his belt, but he won't if he has this nagging knee injury all year that doesn't get better because he keeps playing on it. From what I hear, its a strain and strains only get better if you rest them. Kelly is a gamer and maybe he is downplaying the injury because he wants to play. I wouldn't have it any other way, but lets be smart about this. We have a capable backup in Martin Prado, just let him play and lets get Kelly 100% healthy so that he can have the breakout season he has the potential to.
Two one run losses, ugh. This hurts, to be honest. I fully believe the NL East will come down to no more than 4 games and losing two we should have locked down hurts. But lets not panic yet. One mentally sound week of baseball and we'll see what the team looks like then.
And who can blame them, honestly? They go on the worthwhile, but whirlwind, honor of opening up the Nats new ballpark, fly home at 3 AM, then get up to take on the Pirates in Tommy's return to Atlanta. Add in the excitement of opening baseball for the entire country and then your own home opener. It may just be too much for the Braves to have that intense but quiet focus they were known for during their streak.
I normally hate the early off day during the first couple of games, but they really need this. They need a day off (if nothing else to rest the bullpen after every arm available was used last night). They need a mental reset. Then they need to play two games against the pirates and play them the right way and then get focused for the mets.
I think all the pieces are there for this team to make some noise, but it doesn't matter how many pieces you have if you aren't playing mentally sound baseball, and they just weren't in the first two games.
Now to Kelly. It's obvious Kelly's knee is a bigger deal than he's letting on. He doesn't get the same push off his bad knee and it causes him to come up a little short on balls and leads to errors. I think its hurting his hitting as well, as he can't really get the same lower body drive. I'm not one of those people who wants to platoon him and Prado, but Bobby should just keep him on the bench until its better, save him for pinch hitting or maybe even just DL him and make sure the knee is 100% fine. Kelly can have a gigantic year, he's put a year of second base under his belt, but he won't if he has this nagging knee injury all year that doesn't get better because he keeps playing on it. From what I hear, its a strain and strains only get better if you rest them. Kelly is a gamer and maybe he is downplaying the injury because he wants to play. I wouldn't have it any other way, but lets be smart about this. We have a capable backup in Martin Prado, just let him play and lets get Kelly 100% healthy so that he can have the breakout season he has the potential to.
Two one run losses, ugh. This hurts, to be honest. I fully believe the NL East will come down to no more than 4 games and losing two we should have locked down hurts. But lets not panic yet. One mentally sound week of baseball and we'll see what the team looks like then.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Looking at the Braves Lineup
One thing that becomes immediately obvious is that the RH batters have to hit against lefties and the LH batters have to hit against righties. Chipper and Tex are going to do their thing in the middle, but unless 3 of the other hitters are doing what they should, we're going to see a lot of results like last night.
We have a wonderfully balanced lineup, 3 lefties, 3 righties and 2 switch hitters. I can't think of a better balanced lineup in all of baseball. However, that means nothing if the guys who are supposed to hit don't hit.
Last night the right handed trio of Francoeur, Diaz and Escobar went 1-6 (the lone hit was an infield single) with a walk against the soft tossing lefty, odalis perez. Those same 3 then went 0-4 against the subsequent relief pitchers. If you had told me this before the game, I'd have picked us to score about 2 runs, if that.
The same thing applies with RH pitchers with regards to Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann and Mark Kotsay. The non-switch hitters have to hit against the pitchers they're supposed to or this offense just won't score runs.
We have a wonderfully balanced lineup, 3 lefties, 3 righties and 2 switch hitters. I can't think of a better balanced lineup in all of baseball. However, that means nothing if the guys who are supposed to hit don't hit.
Last night the right handed trio of Francoeur, Diaz and Escobar went 1-6 (the lone hit was an infield single) with a walk against the soft tossing lefty, odalis perez. Those same 3 then went 0-4 against the subsequent relief pitchers. If you had told me this before the game, I'd have picked us to score about 2 runs, if that.
The same thing applies with RH pitchers with regards to Kelly Johnson, Brian McCann and Mark Kotsay. The non-switch hitters have to hit against the pitchers they're supposed to or this offense just won't score runs.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Opening Day
Although I liked the Japanese series, to me, this is opening day. This is the first game that the majority of Americans baseball fans will watch. It's the opening of a new stadium, its America's Team (well, now that the TBS deal finally is gone, maybe not so much anymore) v. the team in America's capital.
I don't normally get sentimental when it comes to sports, but there really is something special about opening day. There is an excitement that you just can't quite put your finger on. Obviously a major part is the hope for a magical season. Winning a championship in what may be 6's final year in the dugout (I really hope not, but it's going to happen sooner or later). Winning one in what may be Tom Glavine's final year and on a more practical note, what may be our last good shot for a few years, as I think our chances of signing Teixeira after this season are slim to none.
Although I'd love to be there, opening day tickets in a new ballpark are a little hard to come by. However, I am planning on seeing John Smoltz pitch when the Braves return on the 11th of april.
Now playing: John Fogerty - Centerfield
I don't normally get sentimental when it comes to sports, but there really is something special about opening day. There is an excitement that you just can't quite put your finger on. Obviously a major part is the hope for a magical season. Winning a championship in what may be 6's final year in the dugout (I really hope not, but it's going to happen sooner or later). Winning one in what may be Tom Glavine's final year and on a more practical note, what may be our last good shot for a few years, as I think our chances of signing Teixeira after this season are slim to none.
Although I'd love to be there, opening day tickets in a new ballpark are a little hard to come by. However, I am planning on seeing John Smoltz pitch when the Braves return on the 11th of april.
Now playing: John Fogerty - Centerfield
Saturday, March 29, 2008
Raconteurs - Consolers of the Lonely review
3.5 stars (out of 5)
So the Raconteur's debut album sounded like exactly what it was. An album somewhat hastily put together that was based around a handful of excellent songs and filled with songs that neither of the two principal songwriters in the group, Jack White and Brendan Benson, thought good enough when they wrote them for their projects, the white stripes and Brendan's solo career. That's not to say it was a bad album, the highs were really really high. They kicked you in the gut with Level and were extremely catchy with Steady As She Goes. However, the album really lacked the consistency that seperates great bands from assemblages of good musicians coming together for a short time. So this time around, would their album fall into the same rut?
Consolers of the Lonely comes out punching, and hard, with the title track and Salute Your Solution. The Raconteurs certainly find themselves playing more together than they ever did on the previous album here. All the parts really fit well together on these two songs. The tempo change into a Jack White freakout solo followed by a big bass line about halfway through Salute Your Solution is defintiely a high point of the album.
Just when you think this album is just out to cut your face off, they throw a nice change of pace with the piano intro of you don't understand me. While not a particularly amazing song, it does show a few things you'd never see on a white stripes album, some pretty vocal harmonies and subtle rhythym playing from Jack. However, the song does drag a little. The chorus isn't particularly catchy, but the song is structured in such a way that it really needs a catchy chorus.
I consider the next song, Old Enough, to be the highlight of the album. The organ comping, mixed in with the great fiddle playing really gives it a dixie dregs type feel, while the chorus and verses are all catchy. Jack really plays well on this song without ever taking over with the gigantic jack riff that we know from the white stripes and the last raconteurs album. the last 45 seconds ends with the band all playing together for a great ending to a great song. The next song, the switch and the spur, continues the same feel from Old Enough. Just as you were starting to yearn for some big jack guitaristy, it delivers about 3 minutes into the song.
On Hold up, the band returns to the driving rave-ups they started the album with. Big intro featuring a great wah wah guitar line. The song doesn't really make it to that next level of a great song, but its very very good. Featuring probably the best guitar work on the album, both throughout the song and in Jack's massive solo.
They slow it back down for a slow simmering blues number in Top Yourself that has some greasy (and that's a good thing) Jack White slide guitar and some really driving acoustic guitar licks. Outro is pure jack white in the very very good sense. This is very white stripeish.
I think the album starts to turn south on Many Shades of Black. We have the same horns as we did on the switch and the spur, but they sound more forced here. Its a 50ish groove, but nothing is really catchy, there are no big guitars, there is nothing that elevates this song from much above mediocre. This is B-side material and its placed in a very critical juncture in the album.
So instead of putting a great song to get the ablum back on track, we here insert a song that seems to be weird for the sake of being weird. There isn't anything particularly interesting. You keep thinking this song is just going to explode into something major, but it just never does. The same can be said for the next song, only notable thing is that it uses the line "now that you ahve my attention, what are you gonna do?" right when the album is starting to lose my attention and I'm wondering what they are doing here. Again, its not a bad song, but its not great, and there hasn't been much of anything great for a while.
The next three songs are okay, they drag and that's about all I think I'll ever need to say about them. I'm starting to wonder why there is this much filler. There are 14 songs on this album, they're almost all over 3 minutes, can't we just cut a couple of them out? Its hard to fault them for putting in more music, but I think a few of these songs between top yourself and carolina drama could have been (bonus songs) tacked on at the end. They really break up the excellent flow the album had established early on. I mean if Jack White is anything, he's not boring and he throws down huge riffs, and here we have a group of average songs that could really use some of that magic. You have to wonder if Jack forgot who he is briefly.
Carolina Drama ends the album on a good note. It's Jack White telling a story, in a slow driving simmer, the song building energy slowly until it explodes at the very end.
This is a very good album. There is more good material than the previous album, there isn't as much great material and there are too many songs that are just filler and they're all lined up in a row. You can tell this is a band carried by the genius of Jack White, when Jack White isn't 100% committed to the band. This album starts off rocking and it ends on a great song. You get glimpses of what they could be, but its just not consistent enough to cross over into great territory. Its a shame too, from the glimpses, I could really see the Raconteurs surpassing anything the White Stripes have done if Jack really threw himself into the band for 2-3 years.
So the Raconteur's debut album sounded like exactly what it was. An album somewhat hastily put together that was based around a handful of excellent songs and filled with songs that neither of the two principal songwriters in the group, Jack White and Brendan Benson, thought good enough when they wrote them for their projects, the white stripes and Brendan's solo career. That's not to say it was a bad album, the highs were really really high. They kicked you in the gut with Level and were extremely catchy with Steady As She Goes. However, the album really lacked the consistency that seperates great bands from assemblages of good musicians coming together for a short time. So this time around, would their album fall into the same rut?
Consolers of the Lonely comes out punching, and hard, with the title track and Salute Your Solution. The Raconteurs certainly find themselves playing more together than they ever did on the previous album here. All the parts really fit well together on these two songs. The tempo change into a Jack White freakout solo followed by a big bass line about halfway through Salute Your Solution is defintiely a high point of the album.
Just when you think this album is just out to cut your face off, they throw a nice change of pace with the piano intro of you don't understand me. While not a particularly amazing song, it does show a few things you'd never see on a white stripes album, some pretty vocal harmonies and subtle rhythym playing from Jack. However, the song does drag a little. The chorus isn't particularly catchy, but the song is structured in such a way that it really needs a catchy chorus.
I consider the next song, Old Enough, to be the highlight of the album. The organ comping, mixed in with the great fiddle playing really gives it a dixie dregs type feel, while the chorus and verses are all catchy. Jack really plays well on this song without ever taking over with the gigantic jack riff that we know from the white stripes and the last raconteurs album. the last 45 seconds ends with the band all playing together for a great ending to a great song. The next song, the switch and the spur, continues the same feel from Old Enough. Just as you were starting to yearn for some big jack guitaristy, it delivers about 3 minutes into the song.
On Hold up, the band returns to the driving rave-ups they started the album with. Big intro featuring a great wah wah guitar line. The song doesn't really make it to that next level of a great song, but its very very good. Featuring probably the best guitar work on the album, both throughout the song and in Jack's massive solo.
They slow it back down for a slow simmering blues number in Top Yourself that has some greasy (and that's a good thing) Jack White slide guitar and some really driving acoustic guitar licks. Outro is pure jack white in the very very good sense. This is very white stripeish.
I think the album starts to turn south on Many Shades of Black. We have the same horns as we did on the switch and the spur, but they sound more forced here. Its a 50ish groove, but nothing is really catchy, there are no big guitars, there is nothing that elevates this song from much above mediocre. This is B-side material and its placed in a very critical juncture in the album.
So instead of putting a great song to get the ablum back on track, we here insert a song that seems to be weird for the sake of being weird. There isn't anything particularly interesting. You keep thinking this song is just going to explode into something major, but it just never does. The same can be said for the next song, only notable thing is that it uses the line "now that you ahve my attention, what are you gonna do?" right when the album is starting to lose my attention and I'm wondering what they are doing here. Again, its not a bad song, but its not great, and there hasn't been much of anything great for a while.
The next three songs are okay, they drag and that's about all I think I'll ever need to say about them. I'm starting to wonder why there is this much filler. There are 14 songs on this album, they're almost all over 3 minutes, can't we just cut a couple of them out? Its hard to fault them for putting in more music, but I think a few of these songs between top yourself and carolina drama could have been (bonus songs) tacked on at the end. They really break up the excellent flow the album had established early on. I mean if Jack White is anything, he's not boring and he throws down huge riffs, and here we have a group of average songs that could really use some of that magic. You have to wonder if Jack forgot who he is briefly.
Carolina Drama ends the album on a good note. It's Jack White telling a story, in a slow driving simmer, the song building energy slowly until it explodes at the very end.
This is a very good album. There is more good material than the previous album, there isn't as much great material and there are too many songs that are just filler and they're all lined up in a row. You can tell this is a band carried by the genius of Jack White, when Jack White isn't 100% committed to the band. This album starts off rocking and it ends on a great song. You get glimpses of what they could be, but its just not consistent enough to cross over into great territory. Its a shame too, from the glimpses, I could really see the Raconteurs surpassing anything the White Stripes have done if Jack really threw himself into the band for 2-3 years.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Braves claim Gotay off waivers
So this is one of those moves that 99% of the baseball world overlooks, but is what seperates great GMs from good GMs. He's only been on the job for a short time, but I really like what Frank Wren is doing. The Braves didn't exactly need another backup middle infielder and a lot of GMs in his position would have passed on Gotay. However, Wren has a backup infielder with trade value and options (prado) and he needs a power corner infield bench bat. While acquiring Gotay might not on the surface seem to be fulfilling a need it opens up Prado to be packaged in a deal for a piece we really need, as opposed to filling a spot we only kind of need. Gotay can fulfill our purposes fine. He's had a steadily improving bat and looks to get better defensively. Although he switch hits, he's essentialy a lefty bat, as he's pretty bad against lefties. Here is Paul Lebowitz's take on the Mets putting Gotay on waivers (this was before he found out a divisional rival claimed him)
http://paullebowitz.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2008/03/keeping_tatis_o.html
Even if Prado isn't traded, he can be sent down to the minors to get more regular play, while Gotay can play in the majors. When Infante comes back, Gotay will primarily be someone to fill in at third on occasion and a good to very good lefty bat off the bench.
The Braves were also able to get Scott Thorman to clear waivers. He's got a lot of potential and I'm glad he can get another year of trying to cut down those Ks and harness the immense power he has.
All in all a pretty good day for the Braves, and keep looking for a trade for a power corner bench bat. That would really pull the bench together quite nicely.
http://paullebowitz.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/2008/03/keeping_tatis_o.html
Even if Prado isn't traded, he can be sent down to the minors to get more regular play, while Gotay can play in the majors. When Infante comes back, Gotay will primarily be someone to fill in at third on occasion and a good to very good lefty bat off the bench.
The Braves were also able to get Scott Thorman to clear waivers. He's got a lot of potential and I'm glad he can get another year of trying to cut down those Ks and harness the immense power he has.
All in all a pretty good day for the Braves, and keep looking for a trade for a power corner bench bat. That would really pull the bench together quite nicely.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
A rational Mets fan (gasp)
So I wanted to give a specific shout out to Paul Lebowitz and his blog. I think he is sometimes a little bit biased (something he disputes vehemently), but its only slight and much less than most of the Braves fans I know. He also talks about baseball generally, as opposed to just blogging on the mets. His opinions are always well thought out and supported.
His top post today is even calling the mets brass pure stupidity. :)
http://paullebowitz.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/
His top post today is even calling the mets brass pure stupidity. :)
http://paullebowitz.mlblogs.com/my_weblog/
Batting the Pitcher 8th
So there has been some recent talk about the utility of doing this. Some people criticized Bobby for not being more open to it (which would seem to indicate you're criticizing every single manager outside of Tony LaRussa, which is odd to me to say the least).
A lot of statheads really push it, saying you'll score around 2 tenths of a run more per game. I've looked at the stats and I think there is some validity to wanting to bat your worst hitter 8th. You want your best overall hitter (slugging and OBP) to bat third (that's another subject in itself), so you want to get one more high OBP/low slugging guy 9th so that when the order flips around in later innings he has even more RBI chances. That's a little oversimplified, but the basic gist of it. If you look at AL lineups these days, typically the worst overall hitter does hit 8th now. You'll have a good OBP/speed guy with no power batting ninth. But why, when it comes to the NL, does the pitcher always bat 9th? A couple of reasons:
1) In the NL, you want to protect your #7 hitter. If you bat the pitcher 8th, your #7 hitter, which on good teams is typically a pretty good hitter, is going to get pitched around even mroe than he already does. The stats really only look at OBP and Slug as a given, they don't observe how slugging is affected based on a pitcher hitting behind him. In the AL there isn't nearly as much difference between your 8th and 9th hitter, so this effect isn't as noticeable there.
2) In the NL you want your pitcher to have to bat as little as possible. The pitcher's only responsibility is pitching, if you can avoid a few ABs for him so that he is less gassed on the mound, you want to do that. It also means that you have a tiny bit more flexibility when it comes to when to take him out later in games, since he is less likely to come up.
3) the stats don't take bunting into account. Since the stats that say batting your worst hitter 8th are based pretty much purely on OBP and Slug, it doesn't take into account that probably the most important contribution a pitcher makes to the offense is bunting a guy over for the top of the lineup. You wouldn't want the pitcher bunting a guy over when two high OBP/low slug guys are coming up back to back after him.
Do those effects counterbalance the .2 runs that the statistics predict you would gain by batting the pitcher 8th? Hard to say. I'd guess it is pretty close one way or another (maybe .05 runs per game). I don't think either position is as crazy as the other side makes it out to be. With it not being obvious one way or another, I feel more comfortable keeping with tradition and waiting for some other NL manager to do it enough for a statistically valid study to sort it all out.
A lot of statheads really push it, saying you'll score around 2 tenths of a run more per game. I've looked at the stats and I think there is some validity to wanting to bat your worst hitter 8th. You want your best overall hitter (slugging and OBP) to bat third (that's another subject in itself), so you want to get one more high OBP/low slugging guy 9th so that when the order flips around in later innings he has even more RBI chances. That's a little oversimplified, but the basic gist of it. If you look at AL lineups these days, typically the worst overall hitter does hit 8th now. You'll have a good OBP/speed guy with no power batting ninth. But why, when it comes to the NL, does the pitcher always bat 9th? A couple of reasons:
1) In the NL, you want to protect your #7 hitter. If you bat the pitcher 8th, your #7 hitter, which on good teams is typically a pretty good hitter, is going to get pitched around even mroe than he already does. The stats really only look at OBP and Slug as a given, they don't observe how slugging is affected based on a pitcher hitting behind him. In the AL there isn't nearly as much difference between your 8th and 9th hitter, so this effect isn't as noticeable there.
2) In the NL you want your pitcher to have to bat as little as possible. The pitcher's only responsibility is pitching, if you can avoid a few ABs for him so that he is less gassed on the mound, you want to do that. It also means that you have a tiny bit more flexibility when it comes to when to take him out later in games, since he is less likely to come up.
3) the stats don't take bunting into account. Since the stats that say batting your worst hitter 8th are based pretty much purely on OBP and Slug, it doesn't take into account that probably the most important contribution a pitcher makes to the offense is bunting a guy over for the top of the lineup. You wouldn't want the pitcher bunting a guy over when two high OBP/low slug guys are coming up back to back after him.
Do those effects counterbalance the .2 runs that the statistics predict you would gain by batting the pitcher 8th? Hard to say. I'd guess it is pretty close one way or another (maybe .05 runs per game). I don't think either position is as crazy as the other side makes it out to be. With it not being obvious one way or another, I feel more comfortable keeping with tradition and waiting for some other NL manager to do it enough for a statistically valid study to sort it all out.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Yates for Redmond
So it was pretty inevitable that Yates was going to be dealt or the braves would try to sneak him through waivers right around opening day. I think even then he would have been snatched up, so I am glad the Braves got something out of him.
Now to evaluate what we got in return: Todd Redmond is a control specialist. He walks about 2 guys per 9IP. That level has been pretty constant and I think we can depend on that unless he gets shelled a few times and tries to be overly fine. Looking at his minor league numbers, he looks to project to about 6K/9IP. Which isn't bad, especially compared to his extremely low walk rate. Where he got in trouble last year was by giving up a lot more hits. However, his homerun rate didn't jump drastically, which would lead one to believe he was victimized by a lot of unlucky hits or he played in front of really bad defenses.
Pitchers rarely ever learn control, or they do a lot less than people think they can. Scouts have long held you can't teach velocity, but I think the stats show that you can't teach the kind of control that redmond has. However, since he isn't a power pitcher he is going to need to continue developing pitches in order to get guys out at the major league level. From what I hear he already has a great change. He likely needs to develop some sort of moving fast pitch (be it a hard slider or a sinker or a cutting fastball) and a curve to be a viable #4 or better ML starter. However, that is in the realm of possibility. What he can't do is continue to rely on just his change, as he will have to become over fine, which will lead to walks, which will take away the one thing he has going for him, his control. So how far away does that put him? I'd guess at least 2 years at best. Even then I'd only put his chances of ever starting a game for the Braves at 30% (not counting the Richmond Braves).
Yates of course is a better player right now than Redmond. However, as far as getting something out of Yates, I think we got more than I expected. Yates wasn't going to make the team, and if nothing else, I hope he does well with the Pirates.
Now to evaluate what we got in return: Todd Redmond is a control specialist. He walks about 2 guys per 9IP. That level has been pretty constant and I think we can depend on that unless he gets shelled a few times and tries to be overly fine. Looking at his minor league numbers, he looks to project to about 6K/9IP. Which isn't bad, especially compared to his extremely low walk rate. Where he got in trouble last year was by giving up a lot more hits. However, his homerun rate didn't jump drastically, which would lead one to believe he was victimized by a lot of unlucky hits or he played in front of really bad defenses.
Pitchers rarely ever learn control, or they do a lot less than people think they can. Scouts have long held you can't teach velocity, but I think the stats show that you can't teach the kind of control that redmond has. However, since he isn't a power pitcher he is going to need to continue developing pitches in order to get guys out at the major league level. From what I hear he already has a great change. He likely needs to develop some sort of moving fast pitch (be it a hard slider or a sinker or a cutting fastball) and a curve to be a viable #4 or better ML starter. However, that is in the realm of possibility. What he can't do is continue to rely on just his change, as he will have to become over fine, which will lead to walks, which will take away the one thing he has going for him, his control. So how far away does that put him? I'd guess at least 2 years at best. Even then I'd only put his chances of ever starting a game for the Braves at 30% (not counting the Richmond Braves).
Yates of course is a better player right now than Redmond. However, as far as getting something out of Yates, I think we got more than I expected. Yates wasn't going to make the team, and if nothing else, I hope he does well with the Pirates.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
A beer, a bourbon and a band
So one thing I am planning on doing is periodically having a recommendations blog. It will start with me giving a few various recommendations and then (hopefully) follow with commenters giving recs.
A beer: Mc Chouffe
Somewhere between your typical British brown ale and your typical belgian lies Mc Chouffe (Chouffe being the name of the brewery and Mc indicating the newcastle type influence, clever, eh?).
Cons: it costs between 8 and 12 dollars
you shouldn't drive after one (its about a pint and a half and 8% alcohol)
its hard to find (luckily I found it at my local harris teeter)
Pros: a very unique blend that is smooth, spicy and just plain tasty. (i'll leave out all the beer aficianado descriptions, but if you want more, you can find it here http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/321/1581/ )
You will have a nice buzz after just one (see cons)
One of the coolest bottles around
A bourbon: (or more precisely a bourbon drink): Ma Maker
This is a simple little drink that I concocted during my bartending days that was very popular amongst bourbon drinkers. Somewhat similar to a bourbon equivalent of a rusty nail, without being as thick and sugary. The Gran Marnier really brings out the frutier aspects of the bourbon without overpowering it. Some days you want your bourbon to take you away, some you just want it to take the edge off, this is for the days when you just want to take the edge off.
Rocks glass
ice (preferably three medium sized cubes)
2 shots Maker's Mark (the maker)
Splash of Gran Marnier (the ma)
garnish with a cherry
A Band: The Raconteurs
Normally the band rec would be a little more obscure (sure, why dont you just go ahead and recomend us that we listen to the beatles), but the new album just came out and from what I've heard of it, it easily surpasses the debut. I'll give a fuller review of the album when I have more time to let it soak in. Right now, it would likely just consist of "this song is awesome, these guys totally rock!"
If they keep this up, the White Stripes will become just Jack's little side experiment. Not having a bassist is fine and all, but it really does have its limitations. Its hard for Jack to really freak out when he constantly has to think about holding down the bottom end. Its also nice to see some other creative forces intertwine with Jack's. Lennon-McCartney they ain't but White-Benson are a very able songwriting pair and its great to see how Jack interacts as opposed to dictates in a different setting.
A beer: Mc Chouffe
Somewhere between your typical British brown ale and your typical belgian lies Mc Chouffe (Chouffe being the name of the brewery and Mc indicating the newcastle type influence, clever, eh?).
Cons: it costs between 8 and 12 dollars
you shouldn't drive after one (its about a pint and a half and 8% alcohol)
its hard to find (luckily I found it at my local harris teeter)
Pros: a very unique blend that is smooth, spicy and just plain tasty. (i'll leave out all the beer aficianado descriptions, but if you want more, you can find it here http://beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/321/1581/ )
You will have a nice buzz after just one (see cons)
One of the coolest bottles around
A bourbon: (or more precisely a bourbon drink): Ma Maker
This is a simple little drink that I concocted during my bartending days that was very popular amongst bourbon drinkers. Somewhat similar to a bourbon equivalent of a rusty nail, without being as thick and sugary. The Gran Marnier really brings out the frutier aspects of the bourbon without overpowering it. Some days you want your bourbon to take you away, some you just want it to take the edge off, this is for the days when you just want to take the edge off.
Rocks glass
ice (preferably three medium sized cubes)
2 shots Maker's Mark (the maker)
Splash of Gran Marnier (the ma)
garnish with a cherry
A Band: The Raconteurs
Normally the band rec would be a little more obscure (sure, why dont you just go ahead and recomend us that we listen to the beatles), but the new album just came out and from what I've heard of it, it easily surpasses the debut. I'll give a fuller review of the album when I have more time to let it soak in. Right now, it would likely just consist of "this song is awesome, these guys totally rock!"
If they keep this up, the White Stripes will become just Jack's little side experiment. Not having a bassist is fine and all, but it really does have its limitations. Its hard for Jack to really freak out when he constantly has to think about holding down the bottom end. Its also nice to see some other creative forces intertwine with Jack's. Lennon-McCartney they ain't but White-Benson are a very able songwriting pair and its great to see how Jack interacts as opposed to dictates in a different setting.
What to do with Chuck James?
So jumping right in to baseball...
What do we do with Chuck James? On the one hand, at this point it doesn't seem like he is one of our 5 best starters. Obviously Jair hasn't done it in the regular season like Chuck has, but with Jair, it seems like we at least have hopes of a guy who gives us 6+ on a regular basis, unlike Chucky. On the other hand, Chucky has had a lot of success and its seems unfair for him to have to hope for an injury to crack the ML roster.
Chuck is what he is, he's going to keep you in the game for 5 or 6 innings and then you have to hope the bullpen holds the lead. He doesn't have a dominating fastball and doesn't have a 3rd pitch. What he does have is a great changeup that can keep hitters from pounding him for 5 innings, until they have seen it that day for the third time, which is when a very good chunk of those 32 homers allowed in just 161 IP came from last year. (by way of comparison, Tim Hudson allowed 10 HRs in 224 innings)
Jurrjens on the other hand, has significantly better stuff and could one day be a #2 starter. Chucky won't be more than a #3 starter unless he somehow drastically improves his control and develops a third pitch.
An option that likely won't be taken is to use Chuck as something like a 6th starter and give Glavine, Smoltz and Hampton periodic rests. This would allow Chucky to make between 12 and 20 starts, depending on how much those three are hurt or just need a few extra days off. It would also help stave off some of the fatigue that he showed at the end of last year (while it was due to "injury" the injury was likely caused by fatigue, so not making 30 starts could very well keep that injury from coming back). It has the downside of effectively taking a reliever out of the mix, as James isn't really built to be a long reliever, he'd definitely just be a spot starter.
Another option that has been discussed is trading Chuck, but I think its the wrong time to do that. His value is likely at an all-time low as he is either injured or couldn't hold down the 5th spot, depending on how skeptic the person you are talking to is. And the Braves are likely losing two lefthanders next year in Glavine and Hampton (both have contracts that expire after this year) in a division full of power lefty hitters.
Right now, the route I see the Braves taking is to just wait for one of the starters to go on the DL or for Jair to fall flat on his face. So if you're a Braves fan, you're hoping to not see Chucky at all.
All that being said, its a much better problem than the braves faced last year, when Chucky was locked in as our #3 starter and we were counting on lance cormier, mark redman and kyle davies to fill the last 2 spots.
What do we do with Chuck James? On the one hand, at this point it doesn't seem like he is one of our 5 best starters. Obviously Jair hasn't done it in the regular season like Chuck has, but with Jair, it seems like we at least have hopes of a guy who gives us 6+ on a regular basis, unlike Chucky. On the other hand, Chucky has had a lot of success and its seems unfair for him to have to hope for an injury to crack the ML roster.
Chuck is what he is, he's going to keep you in the game for 5 or 6 innings and then you have to hope the bullpen holds the lead. He doesn't have a dominating fastball and doesn't have a 3rd pitch. What he does have is a great changeup that can keep hitters from pounding him for 5 innings, until they have seen it that day for the third time, which is when a very good chunk of those 32 homers allowed in just 161 IP came from last year. (by way of comparison, Tim Hudson allowed 10 HRs in 224 innings)
Jurrjens on the other hand, has significantly better stuff and could one day be a #2 starter. Chucky won't be more than a #3 starter unless he somehow drastically improves his control and develops a third pitch.
An option that likely won't be taken is to use Chuck as something like a 6th starter and give Glavine, Smoltz and Hampton periodic rests. This would allow Chucky to make between 12 and 20 starts, depending on how much those three are hurt or just need a few extra days off. It would also help stave off some of the fatigue that he showed at the end of last year (while it was due to "injury" the injury was likely caused by fatigue, so not making 30 starts could very well keep that injury from coming back). It has the downside of effectively taking a reliever out of the mix, as James isn't really built to be a long reliever, he'd definitely just be a spot starter.
Another option that has been discussed is trading Chuck, but I think its the wrong time to do that. His value is likely at an all-time low as he is either injured or couldn't hold down the 5th spot, depending on how skeptic the person you are talking to is. And the Braves are likely losing two lefthanders next year in Glavine and Hampton (both have contracts that expire after this year) in a division full of power lefty hitters.
Right now, the route I see the Braves taking is to just wait for one of the starters to go on the DL or for Jair to fall flat on his face. So if you're a Braves fan, you're hoping to not see Chucky at all.
All that being said, its a much better problem than the braves faced last year, when Chucky was locked in as our #3 starter and we were counting on lance cormier, mark redman and kyle davies to fill the last 2 spots.
Intro, etc
Hey guys,
So in the excitement of spring training, I realized I was starting to take over a few other blogs that I liked and was tempted to write highly verbose replies that people only read if they're right up top. Up front I'll pay homage to the greatest blogmeister of all time, David O'Brien.
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/index.html
This is THE BRAVES BLOG. It is where a lot of my thinking about Braves baseball starts from. And where I pick up a lot of the new artists I find. Its a little awkward when a friend asks "where did you find out about this guy?" and I reply "uh, a braves baseball blog." But the guy has excellent taste
A very brief bio: I am a proud graduate of the University of South Carolina. I currently attend The University of Virginia School of Law. I also briefly attended the Georgia Institute of Technology, before transfering to USC. In the interim between college and law school, I held an assortment of odd-jobs, which most relevant were a tour assitant for various artists, bartender and sound engineer for various concerts/clubs. Those positions allowed me to see a lot of great music and try a lot of great beers.
I take law school much less seriously than I should (hence the blog) and the subjects of this blog much more seriously than anyone ever should. (well, except when I'm making very horrible jokes about them)
Anyway, that's enough of an intro. Hope that some people actually read this.
Oh, and Noel Gallagher is GOD.
So in the excitement of spring training, I realized I was starting to take over a few other blogs that I liked and was tempted to write highly verbose replies that people only read if they're right up top. Up front I'll pay homage to the greatest blogmeister of all time, David O'Brien.
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/index.html
This is THE BRAVES BLOG. It is where a lot of my thinking about Braves baseball starts from. And where I pick up a lot of the new artists I find. Its a little awkward when a friend asks "where did you find out about this guy?" and I reply "uh, a braves baseball blog." But the guy has excellent taste
A very brief bio: I am a proud graduate of the University of South Carolina. I currently attend The University of Virginia School of Law. I also briefly attended the Georgia Institute of Technology, before transfering to USC. In the interim between college and law school, I held an assortment of odd-jobs, which most relevant were a tour assitant for various artists, bartender and sound engineer for various concerts/clubs. Those positions allowed me to see a lot of great music and try a lot of great beers.
I take law school much less seriously than I should (hence the blog) and the subjects of this blog much more seriously than anyone ever should. (well, except when I'm making very horrible jokes about them)
Anyway, that's enough of an intro. Hope that some people actually read this.
Oh, and Noel Gallagher is GOD.
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