Part 3: In Depth Predictions for the 2011 Atlanta Braves (defense, overall record, standings, awards)

Part 1 Hitting Projections
Part 2 Pitching Projections

When it comes to defense, I'll look into all the advanced metrics, and they're taken into account when I write this, but when faced with a choice of relatively easy to understand ratings or more accurate but complicated metrics, I tend to chose the former. Thus, my rating system is a simple +/- system. The more plus signs, the better, the more minus signs, the worse. a +/- sign means the player is average for his position. For each individual player, I will say a bit about their various strengths and how they got to that overall rating. To get the overall ratings, you can't simply add the pluses and minuses, because some positions weigh more heavily. SS and CF carry much more weight than 2B and LF, for example.

Brian McCann (C): +

McCann's defense has be maligned over the years, but he made a big step forward in his primary negative last year, throwing runners out, which he nailed at a 30% clip. He's always been good at blocking balls, he gives pitchers a good target and calls a good game. To my mind he's a solid + defender at this point.

Freddie Freeman (1B): +/- (neutral)

I'm tempted to give a plus, but he's also made a few shaky plays in spring. I watched him some at Gwinnett last year and while he's not a gold glove type guy like Teixiera was, he's definitely an improvement over last year's situation. Bottom line is that he has good/very good range at first base and makes some good picks. His arm is good for a first baseman.

Dan Uggla (2B): --

Well, let's not belabor the obvious. He isn't a good second baseman defensively. However, I don't think he's quite as bad as people think. He's not Brooks Conrad, for example, which is what I think some Braves fans are scared we're going to have at second. His biggest problem isn't that he doesn't field balls cleanly, he makes plays on the balls he gets to, it's that his range is relatively limited. We're going to see a lot of balls hit up the middle get through this year.

Chipper Jones (3B): +/-

He is very smooth at third, extremely accurate with his throws, has a strong, though not excellent arm, has great instincts for the position and he positions himself well. However, his range is extremely limited at third at this point in his career, he flat out won't make a lot of plays. Depending on how limited his range gets, he could be a - defender, but he's moved well in the spring.

Alex Gonzalez (SS): +/-

People may be shocked by this one, expecting a plus, if not two pluses, but you could basically echo everything I said about Chipper with Gonzalez. He is smooth, has an average arm at SS that is very accurate, can make spectacular plays. However, for the SS position, his range is becoming more and more limited. There are a lot of balls that a + shortstop should get to that Sea Bass won't even touch.

Overall infield defense:

This is an infield defense that will end up looking a lot better than it is using traditional defensive statistics. I think they'll be near the top of the league in defensive fielding percentage. However, they just plain won't get to a lot of balls. In the end I think it comes out to being an average to slightly below average infield defense. They won't frustrate people with errors, but they won't make very many plays you wouldn't expect them to either.

Martin Prado (LF): +/-

Has the potential for a plus here with how he's looked in spring. Remember he frequently played LF in winter ball. It's really hard to project here much, but I don't expect any sort of travesty from Martin. He's too good of an athlete and works too hard.

Nate McClouth (CF): +/-

Nate's our only player with a gold glove and he's at best a neutral fielder. I'm tempted to give a minus here, but I think he's just average if I'm being objective about it. He's great at making a routine play look like a fantastic catch, due to the often times awkward routes he takes on fly balls. His arm is average, though at times inaccurate. He has decent speed for the position which makes up for some of his other shortcomings. If he had better instincts for the position he could potentially be a plus defender, but he's been playing CF for a while now, and it's probably folly to expect him to all of the sudden develop better instincts on fly balls.

Jason Heyward (RF): +++

Lost in all the hype of his hitting last year was the fact that many services had Heyward ranked at or near the absolute best at his position. He has excellent range, good instincts on fly balls and a very, very good arm that is also accurate. Comparing to Francouer, he has better range, not quite as strong of an arm, substantially better instincts and a more accurate arm. He should win gold gloves at some point in his career, though the award is a farce anyway.

Outfield defense overall is slightly above average. With Heyward's greatness in right, it could be well above average, except that Nate's mediocrity in CF weighs much more heavily than either of the two corners. If Prado turns out to be an above average defender in LF, then the combination fo being next to two plus defenders could really help Nate, but that's to be seen.

Predictions:

NL East:

Philadelphia 92-70
Atlanta 91-69 (wild card)
Florida Marlins 78-84
NY Mets 75-87
Washington Nationals 73-89

NL Central
Cincinnati

NL West
San Francisco, despite being very close, if not under, .500

A quick note about my playoff predictions: It has always been my belief that the playoffs are essentially random, thus I just have a little fun with them. Don't consider them serious. In all but the most extreme cases I believe that every team that makes the playoffs has pretty close to a 1/8 chance of winning the world series. Baseball isn't a game where you can take two teams that are relatively close and have the better team win much more than 50% in seven games. Over a 162 game season, the best teams that make the playoffs tend to win 5/8ths of the time and the worst teams that make the playoffs win 4/8ths of the time. Yet we expect the better team to win these series with any sort of regularity?!

SF over Philly and Atlanta over Cincy first round

Atlanta over SF

AL East
Boston

AL Central
Chicago

AL West
Texas

AL Wild Card
Oakland

Boston over Oakland and Texas over Chicago first round

Boston Over Texas

World Series:

Atlanta over Boston

NL MVP:
Joey Votto

NL Cy:
Cliff Lee

NL ROY:
Freddie Freeman

AL MVP:
Adrian Gonzalez

AL Cy:
Brett Anderson

AL ROY:
Jeremy Hellickson

Sources: Baseball-reference.com, Maple Street Press 2011 Braves Guide, Bill James Handbook 2011, Atlanta Journal Constitution Braves beat blog (David O'Brien, Carrol Rodgers), Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, MLB.com, Capitol Avenue Club

Part 2: In Depth Predictions For the 2011 Atlanta Braves (rotation and bullpen)

Previous: Click here for Hitter Projections
Next: Click Here for Defense and overall predictions

A lot of readers will probably have found my lineup predictions for the 2011 Atlanta Braves to be a little bit optimistic. That's probably partly because I don't predict injuries in these spaces, I save those for my "Top Fears" column, which is to come later. Also, I really do believe that outside of the hole that Alex Gonzalez will be, the 2011 Atlanta Braves will have a fantastic lineup, perhaps the best in the National League.

Now, this optimism is going to be balanced by my projections for the pitching staff. I believe most will find my predictions for both the relievers and starters to be below what they're expecting.

Rotation Order:

1) Derek Lowe
2) Tim Hudson
3) Tommy Hanson
4) Jair Jurrjens
5) Brandon Beachy

First to be called up in case of injury: Mike Minor

Derek Lowe - 3.64 ERA 14-7 140 K's 55 BB's 14 HR's allowed 190 IP

Quick question, which pitcher out of Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson had the best strikeout to walk ratio? If you answered Derek Lowe, it was probably because this is his section, not because you legitimately would have thought that. Derek Lowe has been maligned (possibly fairly) because of his contract, to such an extent that I think he's actually pretty underrated at this point, especially by Braves fans. Few people would guess that Lowe really pitched about as well as Hudson did last year. The only major difference between the two pitchers was Hudson's unbelievably low .253 BABIP v. Lowe's substantially higher than should be expected .313. They were virtually identical in strikeouts, walks, HR's allowed, 2B's allowed, which are generally the categories that pitchers can control. Pitchers typically can't control whether or not a given single type hit gets caught or turns into an out. Last year Lowe was pretty bad at what I call "magic pitching" which basically means he was slightly unlucky. I expect a solid season out of him.

Tim Hudson - 3.60 ERA 15-8 145 K's 72 BB's 15 HR's allowed 194 IP

As mentioned above, if Lowe was slightly unlucky, Hudson was extremely lucky. That's not to say he wasn't a good pitcher last year, just that his record and ERA indicated a GREAT pitcher, which he probably wasn't. The argument that he's a ground ball pitcher really doesn't hold water, as so was Lowe and both gave up nearly identical 2B and HR rates. I expect a return to Earth for Hudson this year, though I still expect him to put up solid numbers. Just not the spectacular numbers of last year.

Tommy Hanson - 3.02 ERA 16-7 190 K's 65 BB's 14 HR's allowed 196 IP

Tommy Hanson was INCREDIBLY unlucky last year, especially when it came to wins and losses and run support. Sure, he was prone to the occasional disaster game, but he was much more "prone" to a gem where he took a ND or loss due to lack of run support. Last year, he dropped somewhat in strikeouts, but also cut his walks, making it a wash. Hanson should still be in the progression stage of his career and my projections reflect that. I fully expect by the second half of this year that he will be considered the staff ace.

Jair Jurrjens - 4.05 ERA 10-10 120 K's 60 BB's 17 HR's allowed 170 IP

Well, I'll more than likely get a lot of hate for this. Who is Jair Jurrjens? Is he the guy that threw up some upper echelon stats in 2009, the slightly above average guy from 2008, the 3rd or 4th starter prospect from his Detroit days or the awful pitcher with injury issues from last year? The truth is he's probably some of all of that. Jair walks a decent amount of people, doesn't strike a whole lot of guys out and gives up a decent amount of doubles and HR's. Those things are all bad. However, he does tend to get a pretty decent amount of GIDP's and pitches well from the stretch. He had a slightly higher than expected BABIP allowed last year at .309, so he probably won't be quite as bad as he was last year, but he'll likely be a 4th starter type pitcher who gives you a chance to win many of the games he pitches. Also disconcerting was a fastball that mostly sat in the 85-89 range in spring training, a 1-3 MPH dropoff on an already average fastball, if that kind of velocity drop is here to stay, things could get ugly. Do not expect the greatness that most Braves fans expected from Jurrjens going forward. Definitely don't expect a 2009 type year from him.

Brandon Beachy - 4.10 ERA 6-5 80 K's 28 BB's 8 HR's allowed 85 IP

Beachy v. Minor was a pretty big battle this spring, but it boiled down to a LOT of factors. 1) Beachy did in fact pitch slightly better than Minor this spring, though both pitched very well. 2) The Braves seem to view Minor as the better long term prospect, and thus likely want him to get regular work in AAA, especially during the early part of the season, when the 5th starter gets skipped a lot and 3) Playing each other back and forth between the minors delays both players service clocks, to the Braves largest financial advantage 4) If the Braves trade Beacy this year, they'd prefer to get him as much MLB exposure as possible. If both pitchers pitch in the 5th spot for roughly half the year, as I expect if neither is traded, then the Braves get two players for cheaper, longer. I'd really look for Beachy to get traded though, as good as he's looked, he has no long term future in Atlanta, with Teheran and Delgado on their way, Mike Minor and Tommy Hanson already here and any other number of pitching prospects not all that far behind either. Best case scenario is he pitches lights out for a couple months, gets packaged for a SS to someone in need of a SP (who doesn't need SP?) and Minor takes over.

Mike Minor - 4.05 ERA 6-5 90 K's 33 BB's 9 HR's allowed 90 IP

I believe that being lefty and the better long term prospect, Minor pitches more than Beachy, and perhaps much more if Beachy is traded, even though Beachy got the initial nod at #5. I think Minor is a solid #3/#4 long term for the franchise, and in many rotations could perhaps be a solid #2. He'll long term be behind Hanson and Teheran and maybe even Delgado in a future Braves rotation. But this is a column about this year and I expect him to put up good, though not world beating, numbers this year. His IP numbers could be substantially higher if there is a significant injury to anyone on the Braves staff, or if Beachy is traded, but I don't predict those kinds of things here.

Kenshin Kawakami will only see a Braves rotation if hellfire and brimstone rain down on the Braves starters and Teheran is absolutely not ready. Hopefully he's traded for some sort of contract relief, but likely he just makes $6.67 million to be the Gwinnett Braves' #2 starter (or as recent reports are saying the AA Mississippi team). For the record, I don't know that he's all that terrible, but it's clear he has no future in the Braves' rotation, despite his paycheck.

Overall I expect the rotation to be good, just not as good as some of those saying they believe it rivals the Phillies rotation seem to believe. The Braves may well be a better team than the Phillies overall, but let's be 100% clear. This rotation is not even remotely close to what the Phillies will be throwing out there, barring injuries. Don't expect the same 3rd in MLB ERA as last year either.

Bullpen:

The 2011 Braves' bullpen is shaping up to be one of the more interesting stories around MLB. Mostly because the team seems set to at least initially go with a situational closer system, not quite closer by committee, but it will probably be referred to by that moniker. I went in depth as to why I think it will probably work in a previous posting here, so I won't really go into the ins and outs of why I think this situation is different than most of the other failed closer systems. The bullpen has the arms to be a really special unit, but also has the potential to really implode if things don't go right, as will be addressed in my biggest fears column.

Craig Kimbrell (RHP) - Closer
Jonny Venters (LHP) - Closer
Peter Moylan (RHP)
Eric O'Flaherty (LHP)
Scott Linebrink (RHP)
George Sherrill (LHP)
Christhian Martinez (RHP)

Craig Kimbrell - 3.87 ERA 55 IP 78 K's 35 Walks 17 Saves

I don't think that Kimbrell has fully solved his wildness and I believe he'll go through at least a couple of situations in which he really blows a couple of games. I'd almost be more inclined to put him in a one run game than a 3 run lead, as he can absolutely dominate at times, but can also completely blow ordinarily safe leads. He may well have the most unhittable stuff in all of baseball, but he often has no idea where his slider is going. At any given time he could quite easily walk two and give up a 3 run homer or strikeout the side in order. I would have rather seen him have one year of MLB experience in low leverage situations before being thrust into the closer role, but such is life. I believe long term he will be one of the most dominant closers in the game, I just don't think he will be this year, this year I think he'll be good overall, with streaks of horridness and elite greatness.

Jonny Venters - 2.34 ERA 65 IP 70K's 26 Walks 23 Saves

You could make the case that Jonny Venters was the most valuable reliever in the NL last year. He devastated the league with not only more K's than innings pitched, but also one of the highest ground ball percentages in MLB history for relievers throwing as many innings as he did. All his pitches have strong downward movement and he throws hard. However, he was wild at times last year, giving up around a half a walk per IP, which isn't particularly good. What happens in year 2 is a mystery. He doesn't seem to be a flash in the pan, as he threw too many innings and had too good of stuff to be merely a statistical anomaly, as a lot of relievers are at times. Yet, he did seem to get off lightly when he was wild last year, and perhaps he may have a few more blowup games than he did last year. However you can also make the case that relievers tend to get less wild with experience, and such may be the case with Venters. I think he'll be the better closer this year out of he and Kimbrell, though I think long term Kimbrell is better. I don't think his numbers will be quite as good as last year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they're better. I think Venters will again pitch a ton, as both a closer and a situational lefty. He will most likely be the Braves' most valuable reliever.

Peter Moylan - 3.45 ERA 64 IP 55 K's 26 Walks

Moylan changed his delivery towards the end of last year to become even more of a sidearmer, to great effect. He has shown control problems in the past. However, the downward movement he gets on his pitches is absurd. As Peter Hjort of Capitol Avenue Club put it, "his changeup is a sinker, his sinker is a super-sinker and his curve is a changeup." This movement is why he gets so many ground balls, why he strikes out a decent number despite not particularly great velocity and why he walks a relatively high number of batters. Expect him to be the primary situational righty and ground ball double play specialist.

Eric O'Flaherty - 3.67 ERA 60 IP 45 K's 24 Walks

O'Flaherty will be the second lefty in the pen after Venters, and the primary lefty in games in which it's near certain that Venters will close. Despite being not as well known as the above three guys, he will play an important role out of the bullpen this year. Expect to see a lot more of him, as situations in which Venters would ordinarily be called upon last year, will likely go to O'Flaherty this year, as Venters is often saved for the 9th inning. How will the young guy with a mixed track record handle the increased pressure situations?

Scott Linebrink - 3.85 ERA 50 IP 45 K's 17 Walks

I think he'll get a nice boost in his numbers from switching leagues and going from ultra hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Turner Field. Many hitters won't have much experience with him and we should see his atrocious number of homeruns drop to a merely bad level. That's the thing with Linebrink, he has good control and puts up decent strikeout numbers, but will give up homeruns. As long as you give him "clean frames" where the worst he can do is give up a solo shot, he is fine. However, if you bring him in with men on base a lot, expect to give up some multi-run bombs.

George Sherrill - 3.50 ERA 35 IP 34 K's 17 Walks

His role will be that of a purely situational lefty when the team doesn't want to burn Venters or O'Flaherty. In that role he will be fine. He is eaten alive by RH batters, but can still get lefties out. Mediocre to bad control at this stage in his career. Will likely frustrate a lot of Braves fans with the following type lines : 0 IP, 1BB, 1 batter faced. But he may also save a lot of jams when the likes of Ryan Howard comes to the plate with men on 2nd and 3rd with two outs in the 6th inning.

Christhian Martinez - 4.00 ERA 32 IP 26 K's 9 Walks

For some reason a lot of people think that Martinez is a high strikeout high walks guy. Which points out two things: 1) People don't know much about him and 2) He's really the Braves only reliever with what can be called excellent control. He has shown elite control with an acceptable K rate throughout the minors and in the majors. Expect him to be the primary long man. People also tend to think he's a young guy. He's 29 years old. He's about at his ceiling, and I expect Stephen Marek and/or Kris Medlen to take his spot at some point in time this year. Which may or may not be a shame, because I think he's more useful than people think, especially considering how wild the rest of the bullpen can be.

Overall, the thing that worries me most about this bullpen is wildness. All of the primary guys are prone to extended bouts of wildness, with Kimbrell being the poster child. If this group can hold the walks down, they have the collective stuff to be completely dominant. However, I'm betting than a few "games in hand" get blown due to walks. On the other hand, I'd be willing to bet they will also go through streaks where a one run lead stands up for several innings as strikeout after strikeout is piled up.

Sources: Baseball-reference.com, Maple Street Press 2011 Braves Guide, Bill James Handbook 2011, Atlanta Journal Constitution Braves beat blog (David O'Brien, Carrol Rodgers), Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, MLB.com, Capitol Avenue Club

Part 1: In Depth Predictions For the 2011 Atlanta Braves (Coaches, lineup regulars and bench)

Part 2: Pitching and Bullpen
Part 3: Defense and overall predictions


Now that all but a couple of mostly inconsequential bench and back of the bullpen spots have been settled, I am offering up my exhaustive 2011 Atlanta Braves preview.

Managers & Coaches
# Name Position
33 Fredi Gonzalez Manager
25 Larry Parrish Batting Coach
45 Roger McDowell Pitching Coach
9 Terry Pendleton First Base Coach
51 Brian Snitker Third Base Coach
18 Carlos Tosca Bench Coach
12 Eddie Perez Bullpen Coach
55 Alan Butts Coach

While not having Six (Bobby Cox) around is very much a culture shock, I don't think it will be a major difference for the club. Fredi Gonzalez is a Bobby Cox disciple, is very familiar with many of the players, either because they were on the Braves when Fredi was a coach in Atlanta, or Fredi managed them in Florida or just from the large number of games the Braves played against Gonzalez's Marlins. Fredi's tendencies in Florida were overall very similar to Bobby's managerial tendencies, for better and worse. Fredi may perhaps be slightly less inclined to burn his trusted relievers out and may have a slightly quicker hook on certain starting pitchers than Bobby did, which may perhaps mean the back of the bullpen sees more action than it did under Bobby, when several relievers could go weeks or months without seeing any real action. Gonzalez has put a renewed emphasis on stretching and defensive drills in spring training. Whether that will be of consequence is hard to say. Fredi seems much more likely to put out a tradional "Joe Morgan" lineup order, whereas as old and as set in his ways Bobby may have been, he would experiment with more "modern" approaches to lineup construction. This will be revisited at length later.

Who knows what we will have with Larry Parrish as a hitting instructor. It was a slightly odd choice, but who knows if he will be an improvement or not from Terry Pendleton, where it seemed like very few hitters took Terry's advice or grew as hitters very much. No use in speculating here.

Roger McDowell is back and I'm okay with the job he's done overall, though not completely in love with it either. He's perhaps gotten more out of Jair Jurjjens than you'd expect, how he handles the young pitchers that Atlanta will see this year and over the next few years will be the major test of his mettle.

Overall I'm very satisfied with the job Frank Wren has done. I loved the Uggla trade, but was ambivalent over the Uggla extension. I'd like to see the organization spend more money on the draft and international players, but it's hard to tell if that's Frank's choice or the mandate of Liberty Media, who may not want to spend a ton of money on the draft when they may be trying to sell the franchise. Spending money on the draft may be smart for the franchise long term, but it doesn't do much to raise its value when up for sale, as the Braves may or may not be. The farm system is loaded pitching wise and he could have a lot of ammo to make an impact trade this year if he so desired. If Wren so desired, he could trade for pretty much any player in MLB that would be available, and perhaps quite a few that aren't really considered available. He could also sit on the arms and see what kind of rotation will emerge of them over the next few years (what I'd mostly favor). Putting Beachy in the starting rotation to start this year was a shrewd move on Wren's part, as will be discussed later.

Let's be honest, the rest of the staff is of little practical consequence. They do their jobs and don't have much impact on the team.

Starting Lineup (in probable batting order):
Martin Prado - LF
Nate McLouth - CF
Chipper Jones - 3B
Dan Uggla - 2B
Brian McCann - C
Jason Heyward - RF
Alex Gonzalez - SS
Freddie Freeman - 1B

Let me start by saying lineup order doesn't matter much. Fans tend to freak out over it, but it's really not a big deal. That being said I HATE the way it seems that Fredi is going to order his lineup. Your best hitter CANNOT hit sixth. That just can't happen. If you were to design the perfect number two hitter, he would have a high OBP, run the bases extremely well but not really be a major base stealer (distracts the #3 hitter and runs into outs in front of power hitters), he would have good power and hit a lot of doubles and he would work pitchers. He would be Jason Heyward. Bobby nailed it out of the park by batting Heyward 2nd last year, and it really pains me to see Fredi take such a huge step backwards. Not only is Fredi robbing Heyward of nearly 5 games worth of at bats over the course of a season, he's also giving somebody who will probably be on base around 40% of the time the opportunity to be knocked in by Alex Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman and the pitcher. As opposed to Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla and Brian McCann. Just ugh.

Perhaps worse is the fact that it seems that even if Nate McClouth doesn't work out in the #2 spot, Fredi's next move seems to be to put Alex Gonzalez in the #2 spot. Sea Bass, as he is semi-affectionately known, was Fredi's most common hitter in the #2 spot in spring, even ahead of the person who will likely start the season there, Nate McClouth. While Jason Heyward is pretty much what you would draw up for a #2 hitter, Alex Gonzalez is the exact opposite. He is a free swinger, is a mediocre base runner, swings for the fences and doesn't work counts. He's not even good at fundamental old school #2 type hitter stuff, like hitting behind the runner. But he plays SS and is a veteran, and under the Joe Morgan book on lineup construction, that means something.

The rest of the lineup order is pretty much paint by the numbers and doesn't really need to be talked about.

Hitter Projections: All averages are of the form: (batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage)

Brian McCann - (.287/.380/.500) 27 HR 97 RBI 73 Runs 39 2B

I expect a nice bounce back year from McCann, courtesy of finally seeming to have his vision issues straightened out and despite seeing a drop in power numbers, he saw an increase in his walk rate. The power projections might be on the high side, as it is difficult to tell if last year was just an aberration power wise or if he is losing some power due to premature aging from catching. I'd tend to vote for the aberration side and my projections reflect that belief. If he hits those numbers, I think he'll be again recognized as rivaling Mauer as the best hitting catcher in the game.

Freddie Freeman - (.270/.335/.450) 16 HR 70 RBI 55 Runs 36 2B

The young buck will have his ups and downs, but I think over the long haul will more than hold his own. He's aggressive at the plate, but doesn't swing at bad pitches. He could walk a touch more than he does, but his plate discipline is acceptable. Long term I think he projects as a prototypical #6 hitter, and hopefully he ends up there by the end of the year this year.

Dan Uggla - (.272/.360/.510) 36 HR 120 RBI 100 Runs 35 2B

I expect Uggla to have a huge year. I don't think last year's batting average and OBP improvements were complete flukes. Now he'll be hitting in a slightly friendlier stadium in a substantially better lineup.

Chipper Jones (.305/.415/.510) 140 games played (the most important stat) 25 HR 95 RBI 98 Runs 35 2B

I expect an excellent year from Chipper, but with a few nagging injuries here and there. Who really knows what you'll get games played wise. He's looked extraordinary in spring, just hitting a 450 foot homer to dead center right handed, as I type this. How that plays out is really anybody's guess.

Alex Gonzalez (.236/.279/.386) 12 HR 70 RBI 55 Runs 25 2B

Ugh, just ugh. He's going to continue to regress at the plate. His numbers after leaving super hitter friendly Rogers Center and coming to pitcher friendly Turner Field were ugly and I expect it to get even uglier. I don't know when the Braves are going to address the SS position, as it seems like Lipka is a ways away in the minors, Salcedo is a ways away and projects as a 3B to my eyes. Hicks projects as a utility infielder, best case scenario. I wouldn't be totally upset if the Braves used a tiny bit of their minor league pitching depth on this position. Yes, I hated Yunel Escobar too, but man, it's hard to like Gonzalez.

Jason Heyward (.305/.440/.560) 28 HR 98 RBI 95 Runs 43 2B 14 steals

Health is an issue, as he seems to be semi-prone to nagging injuries at times. What isn't an issue is talent, as he is perhaps the most talented Brave since Hank Aaron. He'll be walked a TON as long as Alex Gonzalez and Freddie Freeman are hitting behind him, as he will begin to really strike fear into opposing pitchers. He will smartly not change his approach, still forcing pitchers to make pitches to him or walk him. This is smart, you take a walk, even in the #6 spot if the pitcher isn't really pitching to you. He will be on base so much that he will have nearly 100 runs out of the number 6 spot, which is virtually unheard of in the National League. Fredi's plan to have him in the #6 spot to drive in runs will be undermined by the amount he's walked, negating the already dubious reasoning for putting him there in the first place. It's sad that a possible MVP candidate will have his impact hurt this much by a stupid batting order decision. Hopefully the amount he's walked will eventually put him in the #2 spot, where he belongs.

(let me say that I don't think lineup protection is important value wise, but in very few cases, I think it can matter just in what types of outcomes you get. Taking a walk is really valuable, regardless of your position in the lineup, so I don't think lineup protection will make a player a better or worse hitter. However, I think it can effect walk rates in extreme cases. As going from hitting in front of Chipper, Uggla, McCann to Gonzalez, Freeman, pitcher is about as extreme of a situation as you'll find)

Nate McLouth (.260/.350/.420) 15 HR 100 Runs 58 RBI 30 2B 22 steals

We've seen a lot of "bad Nate" and people are hoping for a return to "good Nate", what we'll probably see is "mediocre Nate." He has some pop, some speed and walks a decent amount. He's really not made to be a #2 hitter, as his contact rate, even at it's best isn't what you want out of a #2 guy, he's not patient enough for a #2 guy. But he'll be okay in the spot I believe. He's substantially better than the other option that Fredi seems inclined to put there, Sea Bass.

Martin Prado (.305/.368/.470) 17 HR 115 runs 60 RBI 42 2B

Martin Prado is one of the few players that you can routinely bet on beating most of the mathematical projection type systems on a regular basis. The guy just works that hard that he's going to beat a normal career advancement curve. He should have a little more "juice in the tank" from playing the less physically taxing position of left field, which could translate into a very mild bump offensively. Then you take into account his natural progression and I think he could make another big jump in his offensive numbers. I wouldn't be totally shocked if he hit 30 HRs by turning a lot of those long doubles he hits into HRs, as he's definitely strong enough. He'll be hitting leadoff, which I think is good for him, because his one weakness is an occasional lack of patience. Hitting leadoff, he will be more inclined to be patient, and pitchers may be more inclined to throw him strikes.

Bench:

I am not going to give bench projections, as they're essentially impossible to predict, because A) how many AB's they get mostly depends on impossible to predict injuries B) their stats are over such a small sample size that they may as well be meaningless. I will just talk about what it is that each of the bench candidates brings to the table and under what circumstances they will play. First I'll address the three virtual locks for a bench job, and then talk about the remaining players who will either start the season on the bench or be likely to be on the bench at some point in time.

Brooks Conrad has some pop and switch hits. He's a fine candidate for a late inning pinch hitter position and very occasional sub. Last year, due to a myriad of injuries, Conrad was forced to play in the field a lot. For a lot of the year he held himself up admirably, despite being far from his forte and why he was on the team. But he was eventually exposed in an awful way. He is a defensive liability, there is no way around that objective fact. However, he will be fine as long as he's not counted on to give a substantial number of innings in the field. If a situation comes up where he will be counted on in that manner, Frank Wren should immediately make a move, as he just can't be out in the field for any significant number of innings.

Eric Hinske is a prototypical pinch hitter and occasional sub. He's going to give you good late inning left handed ABs with some pop. He hits the ball relatively hard and doesn't get himself out a whole lot, which is about all you can ask of a pinch hitter. He'll give you some occasional games at 1B and LF.

David Ross is, for my money, the best backup catcher in the NL. A defensive wizard, he's also perfectly adequate in the batter's box as well. This is very important because of how much the Braves depend on McCann's offense. A huge drop off would drastically change the way the team played on days when McCann was off. However, with Ross, while there is a decline, it's not drastic and allows the team to more or less function normally.

Brandon Hicks seems to have come on strong lately. He's primarily a SS/3B. He's good defensively, at least he has been in the minors, though I'd say he's short of being a "wizard." He's always had good power and speed, and he's shown increased discipline and contact rate in a limited sample size this spring. He is an excellent baserunner and was Bobby's primary pinch runner last year after he was called up. He hits RH, which is a plus since Hinske is LH and Conrad is a switch hitter. He's not a candidate to play regularly if an injury occurs, however.

Matt Young is a speedy guy who can play all the OF positions and is perhaps the best player not already assigned to the minors to play CF. He's likely a defensive OF solely. Gives the Braves 2 strong pinch runner, should the need arise. Will be mostly used in late game defensive sub situations, especially in any games where Hinske plays LF. He makes more sense when you consider that Chipper will likely get a lot of days off, where Prado will likely slide back to 3B and have Matt play CF or LF late in the game in defensive situations for Hinske, with McClouth playing the other spot.


Players who, despite being assigned to the minors will likely see substantial time in Atlanta at some point:

Diory Hernandez is a solid fielder and marginal hitter. He probably should have been in the field during some of those late year Brooks Conrad defensive lapses. I believe that if a middle infielder goes on the DL at some point this year Diory would be called up and would start over Hicks, Lucas or Mather.

Jordan Schafer is an interesting tale. He lost almost all of 2010 due to injury, has been suspended for something to do with HGH (never exactly clear what went on) and has struggled this spring, despite "looking good and feeling great." I think the Braves, much like Wilkin Ramirez, are sending Schafer to minors, because they still believe he has a future in Atlanta. After having missed so much time, they believe that he mostly needs regular ABs, which he wouldn't get in a bench role in Atlanta. If he hits well in the minors, I expect him to be the first one called up if someone goes on the DL at 3B, CF or RF. 3B may seem weird, until you consider that Prado would probably vacate LF and slide into 3B if/when Chipper goes on the DL. In that scenario I believe you'd see Nate slide over into LF (or perhaps Hinske) and Schafer take CF. If Jordan doesn't hit well in the minors, I'd expect Wilkin Ramirez to get called up and some sort of combination of all the available options to fill the role Schafer would. I personally believe he's too talented and too hard of a worker to not eventually get things turned around, though he is quickly running out of time.

Next up: Starters and Bullpen (article now posted: Link here )
After that: team defensive performance, overall record predictions, awards, etc
After that: Top 10 fears for the 2011 Atlanta Braves

Sources: Baseball-reference.com, Maple Street Press 2011 Braves Guide, Bill James Handbook 2011, Atlanta Journal Constitution Braves beat blog (David O'Brien, Carrol Rodgers), Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, MLB.com, Capitol Avenue Club

Closer by matchup, why it hasn't worked and why it probably will work for the Braves

There are a lot of seemingly good ideas that should work, but don't. When I was in college, my apartment was right next door to the baseball field, and I ended up having lunch with Ray Tanner quite a bit. One day we were talking about pitcher strategies, and I said "why not just have every pitcher throw three innings? Your pitchers could throw harder, they'd be less susceptible to injury, the hitter wouldn't face them more than once in most cases, keeping them more off balance, etc." Tanner told me that the idea had already been tried in the past by a lot of college coaches and that Tony LaRussa had even tried it once in the majors (which is brought up in the decent new book, Scorecasting). He explained that while it should work, the pitchers just didn't like it and would throw temper tantrums. The only time he had seen the strategy successfully used was at smaller colleges where none of the pitchers really had draft aspirations and were just happy to be playing baseball. The dreaded reverence for the stupidest, most arbitrary "statistic" in any sport, the pitcher's win was, again, messing everybody up. That and the fact that all the pitchers feared being pegged as middle relievers by scouts.

It's my belief that the closer by matchup, or perhaps as its better known, closer by committee, fails for two reasons: 1) usually it's only tried with really crappy relievers and 2) when it is tried with proven closer type relievers, they either throw temper tantrums or "can't get used to it." Which is really a more acceptable way of throwing a temper tantrum. The only time I can recall it sorta kinda working was with the Braves a few years back, and it took two guys who were decent, but not elite closers and the manager most respected by players in the entire game, Bobby Cox, to get it to work. Even then, many suspected Rafael Soriano of faking injuries because of his unhappiness with sharing duties at times with Mike Gonzalez.

What gets in the way? Well, crappy relievers give crappy results, regardless of their matchup. Remember that while lefty-lefty and righty-righty matchups are preferable, crappy lefties still get hit a lot by good left handed hitters. In the second case, it's yet another mind bogglingly stupid "statistic" that is getting in the way, the save.

Saves get relievers paid. It is as simple as that. It's one of the defining issues in arbitration, in deciding if the pitcher is an A or B type free agent, and it's a big issue in free agency negotiations between agents and GMs. If a manager puts his best right hander in in the 8th inning, because that is when Pujols is coming up, and then puts in a slightly lesser lefty in the 9th, because 2 of the 3 hitters are lefties, the better right hander is going to get upset that his save was robbed of him. Even though that situation is better than putting in a crappy reliever in the 8th to face Pujols and then having the righty closer come in to face lefties in the 9th, the closer would much prefer to get the save chance than maximizing his team's chances to win.

So why, in the face of these major issues, do I think it will work for the Braves? Well they have two major things going for them: 1) they have each a really excellent left and right handed reliever and 2) both players are very young, are under full team control for several more years and are still in the "I'm just happy to be here" AKA I'm too young to throw a tantrum and get away with it phase of their careers.

Jonny Venters was a revelation last year and showed all the signs of it not being a flash in the pan. He pitched a ton and put up sparkling numbers throughout. His stuff was super legit, featuring perhaps some of the nastiest sink in all of baseball and having the highest ground ball percentage of any pitcher who threw over 50 innings, starter or reliever. Craig Kimbrel has possibly the nastiest stuff in all of baseball, though he's prone to bouts of wildness. He posted the highest k/9ip mark in baseball history last year.

Yet neither could get away with throwing a tantrum for not being the closer. Neither pitcher has been a closer in their career (well, Kimbrel has in the minors) and can't claim "well, I'm just not used to this type of role." If they started acting up in protest, it would just be a ticket for the other one to outright win the closer job, which the only thing worse than being co closer is not being the closer at all.

So here, I think we may just see one of the first truly successful closer by matchup situations.