Protest of June 17th game formally denied

As expected, Fredi Gonzalez's formal protest of the Atlanta Braves 6-2 loss to the Texas Rangers on June 17th has been formally denied.

The protest was based around two plays, one coming in the 5th inning and one coming in the 9th inning. Gonzalez was also said to have protested the batting order the Rangers sent out as well.

First, in the fifth inning, with Elvis Andrus on 2nd and nobody out, Josh Hamilton did not bunt. Fredi immediately protested the play from the dugout, yelling at home plate umpire Larry Vanover "Larry, you know as well as I do he has to bunt the runner over there." Making matters worse Hamilton then singled Andrus in, which enraged Fredi even more. Asked about the play after the game, Gonzalez said "well, it was clearly illegal, we know that with a man on 2nd and no outs you have to move the runner over. I know those guys are used to playing in the American League, and maybe their rules are different, but that's not how the game works here, this is a National League Park, am I right? I was about to take my normal 5th inning nap and just barely caught it, but boy was I angry."

Later in the ninth inning the Rangers held a 4 run lead to open the frame. At that point the Rangers brought in Neftali Feliz. At that juncture Fredi is said to have gone ballistic and was nearly thrown out of the game for yelling expletives at both the Rangers and umpires. Gonzalez said later "At that point they had to be just taunting the rule book, in my years of baseball, I've never seen such clear disregard for the game. I read an article on Bleacher Report saying that Feliz was their closer. That was clearly not a save situation, I know the math on that can be hard, but I asked like 5 people in the first row, just to be sure, and they all said it wasn't a save situation. And after the game the little "S" didn't show up next to Feliz's name, so I know it wasn't. Just a blatant disregard of the rules of the game."

Finally, as the Braves skipper was looking up at the scoreboard to see if the little "S" would pop up next to Feliz's name, he noticed something fishy. From watching some of the game he had clearly seen that Elvis Andrus was faster than Ian Kinsler. Yet Kinsler batted leadoff while Andrus batted in the second spot. "That was the last straw there" the manager said "I mean are they trying to deny that Andrus is the faster of those two players? They were definitely trying to pull a fast one over us, but luckily I caught it at the end of the game." Fredi continued "I know these protests don't go anywhere most of the time, I protested a game last year where the opposition batted a third baseman second, and that was denied. But this was three terrible, blatant instances of a complete disregard for the rule book. They can't just let this go unpunished."

When the letter finally arrived announcing that the Braves' petition had been denied the manager and coaches were engaged in a friendly game of "guess whose OBP is higher" where nobody had gotten the correct answer in 6 rounds, since Terry Pendleton correctly guessed that Brian McCann's OBP was higher than Tim Hudson's, though Fredi said "man, it seems like it feels like a lot closer than the numbers say." The coaches seemed unsurprised at the result of the letter, most admitting to not remembering the game at all anyway. Pitching coach Roger McDowell noting "hell, I've probably drank 36 handles of Jim Beam since then and beat up four gays, how the hell am I supposed to remember that kind of shit?"

Fredi read the letter aloud: "Attention Atlanta Braves Organization, your petition of the June 17th Game versus the Texas Rangers has been formally denied. Are you trying to troll us with this crap?"

Breaking Down Beltran, Pence, Heyward to the Minors, Upton, etc

I said yesterday that Beltran to the Braves just wasn't going to happen. Who knows how close it ever came and if there ever was a chance, but I get the distinct impression that as soon as both the Rangers and Giants were involved, the Braves were essentially out.

The analysis of the trade in the blogosphere seemed to begin with what teams could offer the Mets. However, I think an underappreciated angle was how much influence Beltran and Boras had over the process.

Beltran had indicated only really three things: 1) that he wanted to play for a contender (duh, who else would trade for him anyway?) 2) That he would prefer to play RF and 3) that he wanted to play everyday.

The problem with the Braves is that they seemingly couldn't really guarantee parts 2 and 3. In an interview with David O'Brien yesterday, Boras sounded for all the world like the Braves weren't even really a consideration. If the team wasn't giving up Minor, that wouldn't make Boras talk that way, Boras doesn't care who the Mets got, as long as it was enough to get his client moved. No, it's my opinion that once The Rangers and the Giants, both contenders who could gurantee Beltran an everyday spot in RF, got involved Beltran indicated he'd probably veto any trade to the Braves, who could only guarantee an everyday spot if Beltran would play CF at least part time. I actually doubt that once those two clubs were involved, the Braves actually had much of a chance to not offer Mike Minor. Once Boras saw that there were two clubs willing to offer a package that the Mets would accept, he essentially represented his client's wishes by indicating that the club that couldn't offer an everyday spot in RF was done. Classic game theory. Of course it's just speculation and we can never know for certain, but I think it's plausible if not probable.

Now, what of this Hunter Pence posturing? Dufus extraordinaire, Jim Bowden, of ESPN has said (along with other reports) that the Braves are heavily in on Hunter Pence. He also indicated (again, aping other reports) the Braves would option Heyward to the minors in order to open up a slot for Pence. If they are willing to do this, why wouldn't they give up Minor for Beltran and say we'll option Heyward to the minors?

It's my belief that this is either completely fabricated by bored beat writers (mostly Mark Bowman, who seemed to completely pull the original Heyward to AAA rumor out of his ass) or it's a deliberate plant by the Braves, to create leverage with the Rays and Cubs, who have CFers that the Braves likely covet in BJ Upton, Reed Johnson and Marlon Byrd.

The problem with the Braves position is that they clearly want a RH upgrade in CF, but the options are extremely slim. So perhaps they're creating an illusion of options so that they have a bit more leverage with the Rays with Upton and the Cubs. If it seems like they might go with Pence, perhaps the asking price for Upton, Johnson/Byrd goes down. However, if the Rays know that Upton is really the Braves only option, the asking price could get astronomical.

I firmly believe however that the Braves would make no move before they'd trade for Pence and send Heyward to the minors. Again, if they would be willing to trade for Pence, they would have made a harder push for Beltran. Their actions indicate that they actually want a CFer first and foremost and are very unlikely to trade for an everyday corner OFer.

I'd rate the major remaining options as:

BJ Upton: 25%
Marlon Byrd: 15%
Reed Johnson: 30%
Hunter Pence: 10%
other: 10%
No move: 10%

Of course if the Braves do trade for Pence and option Heyward, this is all hogwash. I also will consider being done with the Braves this year.

If I'm The Wrenmaster

First, main needs, in relative order of importance:

1) RH reliever(s) - Yes, more important than a bat at this point. The lineup may or may not come around, but at current usage rates, our top relievers will fall apart if they don't get help. Moylan will help when he comes back, but he's no guarantee, and we need more than that anyway.

2) RH bat - Yes, even if Uggla comes around we need another RH bat in the every day lineup.

3) CF - Schafer is not the answer, McLouth is passable but we need more offense here, ideally not sacrificing defense.

4) utility guy - Lugo getting significant playing time is a problem, though not a HUGE one.

5) RH bench bat - Because there is a chance that McCann could get injured after Ross PH's, meaning the Braves would have to forfeit all subsequent games.

First target is a RH RP. One legit guy along the caliber of Rauch or Clippard. Whichever is cheaper. Also bring up one of Teheran and Vizcaino. It's getting to the point where they should be scaling back IP's anyway, might as well be doing that in the Atlanta pen. In a sort of backwards way of thinking, if you think Teheran will be in the opening day rotation next year, you bring him up, since he wouldn't be scheduled as a super 2. If you think he won't then bring up Viz. For the playoffs I'd actually consider bringing them both up. How sick would: Teheran, Vizcaino, Moylan, O'Flaherty, Rauch, Venters, Kimbrel be? That bullpen might give up negative runs. You could easily afford to take your starters out before they face the lineup a 3rd time, every time. Venters and O'Flaherty as lefty specialists?

Trade for Upton, Marlon Byrd or Reed Johnson, in that order. Carlos Beltran is nonsense, even if he is willing to play CF, what kind of defense do you expect? Can we afford to have both him and Chipper in the lineup, depending on their bats with all that instability? You're not going to fucking demote or platoon Heyward, get the fuck over that.

Upton is my first choice, as we'd see the defense in CF actually improve, and he's got decent OBP, power and speed skills. He's not a leadoff hitter, despite his speed, but you deal with that. He's both a RH bat and a plus plus plus defender in CF. And Jordan Schafer would be gone. I'd go Minor + any of our position players besides Pastornicky or Salcedo. I haven't wrapped my head around if the Rays want Salcedo or Pastornicky straight up. Value seems right, but we need Chipper's eventual successor.

If the Cubs would act reasonably about Byrd, I'd target him, but Hendry has shown some reluctance to trade players who are under contract for next year. Is it a bluff? Who knows?

Reed Johnson would be a rental and would come cheap and would be an upgrade in CF offensively, is RH and wouldn't be a gigantic downgrade defensively.

Trade for Jonny Gomes as a pure utility guy/RH bench bat, if we can get him for next to nothing. Otherwise, do without and fucking tell Fredi to use Ross as a pinch hitter.

Finally, I'd trade Jair Jurrjens, if you can get very good value, but that's for another post.

Craig Kimbrel shouldn't pitch with a 3 run lead in the 9th, at all.

Fredi Gonzalez's usage of his bullpen gets a lot of flack on the interwebs. Things like his refusal to use his best relievers in a tie game on the road, using Proctor in anything other than a 12 run blowout, underusing some younger arms in the bullpen while overusing others (Venters and Kimbrel), the list could go on and on.

However, this post isn't so much about criticizing Fredi as it is something almost no manager would do, so I'm more pointing out a strategy I think could be effective for teams in certain situations, and especially for the Atlanta Braves of 2011-2012.

The save is a dumb stat. If you don't agree with that statement, just stop reading, move along, nothing good will come from further reading of this post. However, the save is still highly valued in baseball, for reasons that are not entirely clear. It's an important stat in: deciding how much money free agent relievers get; it actually seems to influence many managers' strategies, like the stat somehow counts in the win column; and for the purposes of this article it is really influential in player arbitration cases.

Craig Kimbrel is a great relief pitcher, the numbers he's put up this year are among, if not the, absolute best in baseball. He's also under full team control, making the major league minimum. This is awesome for the Atlanta Braves, as it frees up significant financial resources to pursue other spending avenues within the constraints of a limited budget.

However, this will not always be the case. There will come a time when he becomes arbitration eligible.

For relief pitchers, arbitration awards are dominated by saves. Great DIP stats to the wind, for whatever reason, saves dominate. Because of this, Craig Kimbrel could be in line for a pretty nice pay bump when he qualifies for arbitration status. As things look right now, he might be not only at the top of pitchers for his age group, but might be at the top of all relief pitchers at that point.

This is a nice problem to have, because it does mean that he's pitching extremely well. However, this burden on the Atlanta Braves could be lighter (or the benefit could be greater, depending on how you chose to look at it).

Moving from arbitration pay to workload for a second, another issue is that Kimbrel is being overworked. Now, some of this is not Fredi Gonzalez's fault. The Atlanta Braves have played in a lot of very close games, necessitating using your highest leverage relivers much more than average. The Atlanta Braves are also very top heavy in the bullpen, with Venters and Kimbrel being exceptional, but having questionable relievers after that, especially right handed relievers. It'd be really nice if we could figure out some way to lighten Kimbrel's workload, without taking him out of those situations where we need him the most.

For the third prong, let's talk about the three run lead in the ninth inning and the value of throwing a scoreless inning in that scenario. We'll use Win Probability Added (WPA) to show how important (or unimportant) a scoreless 9th inning with a 3 run lead is. Using yesterday's Braves-Rockies game as an example we see Craig Kimbrell's scoreless bottom of the 9th with a three run lead was worth a WPA of .053. This isn't an entirely meaningless number, but you'll notice Jonny Venters' scoreless inning was worth more, and 6 Braves positions players had a higher WPA for the game. Basically Kimbrell's number means that his scoreless ninth inning increased the braves chances of winning the game from 95% to 100%. A 5% increase in probability. Not negligible, but not earth shattering either.

Stepping away from an advanced stat like WPA, just think about it for a second using a more flawed, yet better understood statistic, ERA. A pitcher with a 27.00 ERA is obviously historically, laughably bad. Yet, that's essentially the ERA you have to have in order to blow a 3 run lead in one inning (of course barring unearned runs). So while a scoreless ninth with a three run lead is valuable, it's not all that valuable.

Yet the three run lead in the ninth inning is treated for our purposes just like an extremely high leverage situation. It takes a toll of 1 IP + warming up in the bullpen on Kimbrel's overworked arm and adds to the amount of money he will get in arbitration.

So if we're looking for a way to cut down on the load on Kimbrel's arm, and save the team some money for a possible extension (Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward maybe?) then it'd seem like an obvious choice. Stop putting Kimbrel out there with three run leads in the ninth inning. Let someone else pitch besides Venters and Kimbrel in those situations. You'd save your team some money by distributing those saves to guys who aren't going to be arbitration guys to begin with (either because they're past arbitration years or not going to get enough saves to matter anyway) and we can give Kimbrel some much needed rest.

Remember, saves don't win games, wins win games.