Part 3: Defense and overall predictions
Now that all but a couple of mostly inconsequential bench and back of the bullpen spots have been settled, I am offering up my exhaustive 2011 Atlanta Braves preview.
Managers & Coaches
# Name Position
33 Fredi Gonzalez Manager
25 Larry Parrish Batting Coach
45 Roger McDowell Pitching Coach
9 Terry Pendleton First Base Coach
51 Brian Snitker Third Base Coach
18 Carlos Tosca Bench Coach
12 Eddie Perez Bullpen Coach
55 Alan Butts Coach
While not having Six (Bobby Cox) around is very much a culture shock, I don't think it will be a major difference for the club. Fredi Gonzalez is a Bobby Cox disciple, is very familiar with many of the players, either because they were on the Braves when Fredi was a coach in Atlanta, or Fredi managed them in Florida or just from the large number of games the Braves played against Gonzalez's Marlins. Fredi's tendencies in Florida were overall very similar to Bobby's managerial tendencies, for better and worse. Fredi may perhaps be slightly less inclined to burn his trusted relievers out and may have a slightly quicker hook on certain starting pitchers than Bobby did, which may perhaps mean the back of the bullpen sees more action than it did under Bobby, when several relievers could go weeks or months without seeing any real action. Gonzalez has put a renewed emphasis on stretching and defensive drills in spring training. Whether that will be of consequence is hard to say. Fredi seems much more likely to put out a tradional "Joe Morgan" lineup order, whereas as old and as set in his ways Bobby may have been, he would experiment with more "modern" approaches to lineup construction. This will be revisited at length later.
Who knows what we will have with Larry Parrish as a hitting instructor. It was a slightly odd choice, but who knows if he will be an improvement or not from Terry Pendleton, where it seemed like very few hitters took Terry's advice or grew as hitters very much. No use in speculating here.
Roger McDowell is back and I'm okay with the job he's done overall, though not completely in love with it either. He's perhaps gotten more out of Jair Jurjjens than you'd expect, how he handles the young pitchers that Atlanta will see this year and over the next few years will be the major test of his mettle.
Overall I'm very satisfied with the job Frank Wren has done. I loved the Uggla trade, but was ambivalent over the Uggla extension. I'd like to see the organization spend more money on the draft and international players, but it's hard to tell if that's Frank's choice or the mandate of Liberty Media, who may not want to spend a ton of money on the draft when they may be trying to sell the franchise. Spending money on the draft may be smart for the franchise long term, but it doesn't do much to raise its value when up for sale, as the Braves may or may not be. The farm system is loaded pitching wise and he could have a lot of ammo to make an impact trade this year if he so desired. If Wren so desired, he could trade for pretty much any player in MLB that would be available, and perhaps quite a few that aren't really considered available. He could also sit on the arms and see what kind of rotation will emerge of them over the next few years (what I'd mostly favor). Putting Beachy in the starting rotation to start this year was a shrewd move on Wren's part, as will be discussed later.
Let's be honest, the rest of the staff is of little practical consequence. They do their jobs and don't have much impact on the team.
Starting Lineup (in probable batting order):
Martin Prado - LF
Nate McLouth - CF
Chipper Jones - 3B
Dan Uggla - 2B
Brian McCann - C
Jason Heyward - RF
Alex Gonzalez - SS
Freddie Freeman - 1B
Let me start by saying lineup order doesn't matter much. Fans tend to freak out over it, but it's really not a big deal. That being said I HATE the way it seems that Fredi is going to order his lineup. Your best hitter CANNOT hit sixth. That just can't happen. If you were to design the perfect number two hitter, he would have a high OBP, run the bases extremely well but not really be a major base stealer (distracts the #3 hitter and runs into outs in front of power hitters), he would have good power and hit a lot of doubles and he would work pitchers. He would be Jason Heyward. Bobby nailed it out of the park by batting Heyward 2nd last year, and it really pains me to see Fredi take such a huge step backwards. Not only is Fredi robbing Heyward of nearly 5 games worth of at bats over the course of a season, he's also giving somebody who will probably be on base around 40% of the time the opportunity to be knocked in by Alex Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman and the pitcher. As opposed to Chipper Jones, Dan Uggla and Brian McCann. Just ugh.
Perhaps worse is the fact that it seems that even if Nate McClouth doesn't work out in the #2 spot, Fredi's next move seems to be to put Alex Gonzalez in the #2 spot. Sea Bass, as he is semi-affectionately known, was Fredi's most common hitter in the #2 spot in spring, even ahead of the person who will likely start the season there, Nate McClouth. While Jason Heyward is pretty much what you would draw up for a #2 hitter, Alex Gonzalez is the exact opposite. He is a free swinger, is a mediocre base runner, swings for the fences and doesn't work counts. He's not even good at fundamental old school #2 type hitter stuff, like hitting behind the runner. But he plays SS and is a veteran, and under the Joe Morgan book on lineup construction, that means something.
The rest of the lineup order is pretty much paint by the numbers and doesn't really need to be talked about.
Hitter Projections: All averages are of the form: (batting average/on base percentage/slugging percentage)
Brian McCann - (.287/.380/.500) 27 HR 97 RBI 73 Runs 39 2B
I expect a nice bounce back year from McCann, courtesy of finally seeming to have his vision issues straightened out and despite seeing a drop in power numbers, he saw an increase in his walk rate. The power projections might be on the high side, as it is difficult to tell if last year was just an aberration power wise or if he is losing some power due to premature aging from catching. I'd tend to vote for the aberration side and my projections reflect that belief. If he hits those numbers, I think he'll be again recognized as rivaling Mauer as the best hitting catcher in the game.
Freddie Freeman - (.270/.335/.450) 16 HR 70 RBI 55 Runs 36 2B
The young buck will have his ups and downs, but I think over the long haul will more than hold his own. He's aggressive at the plate, but doesn't swing at bad pitches. He could walk a touch more than he does, but his plate discipline is acceptable. Long term I think he projects as a prototypical #6 hitter, and hopefully he ends up there by the end of the year this year.
Dan Uggla - (.272/.360/.510) 36 HR 120 RBI 100 Runs 35 2B
I expect Uggla to have a huge year. I don't think last year's batting average and OBP improvements were complete flukes. Now he'll be hitting in a slightly friendlier stadium in a substantially better lineup.
Chipper Jones (.305/.415/.510) 140 games played (the most important stat) 25 HR 95 RBI 98 Runs 35 2B
I expect an excellent year from Chipper, but with a few nagging injuries here and there. Who really knows what you'll get games played wise. He's looked extraordinary in spring, just hitting a 450 foot homer to dead center right handed, as I type this. How that plays out is really anybody's guess.
Alex Gonzalez (.236/.279/.386) 12 HR 70 RBI 55 Runs 25 2B
Ugh, just ugh. He's going to continue to regress at the plate. His numbers after leaving super hitter friendly Rogers Center and coming to pitcher friendly Turner Field were ugly and I expect it to get even uglier. I don't know when the Braves are going to address the SS position, as it seems like Lipka is a ways away in the minors, Salcedo is a ways away and projects as a 3B to my eyes. Hicks projects as a utility infielder, best case scenario. I wouldn't be totally upset if the Braves used a tiny bit of their minor league pitching depth on this position. Yes, I hated Yunel Escobar too, but man, it's hard to like Gonzalez.
Jason Heyward (.305/.440/.560) 28 HR 98 RBI 95 Runs 43 2B 14 steals
Health is an issue, as he seems to be semi-prone to nagging injuries at times. What isn't an issue is talent, as he is perhaps the most talented Brave since Hank Aaron. He'll be walked a TON as long as Alex Gonzalez and Freddie Freeman are hitting behind him, as he will begin to really strike fear into opposing pitchers. He will smartly not change his approach, still forcing pitchers to make pitches to him or walk him. This is smart, you take a walk, even in the #6 spot if the pitcher isn't really pitching to you. He will be on base so much that he will have nearly 100 runs out of the number 6 spot, which is virtually unheard of in the National League. Fredi's plan to have him in the #6 spot to drive in runs will be undermined by the amount he's walked, negating the already dubious reasoning for putting him there in the first place. It's sad that a possible MVP candidate will have his impact hurt this much by a stupid batting order decision. Hopefully the amount he's walked will eventually put him in the #2 spot, where he belongs.
(let me say that I don't think lineup protection is important value wise, but in very few cases, I think it can matter just in what types of outcomes you get. Taking a walk is really valuable, regardless of your position in the lineup, so I don't think lineup protection will make a player a better or worse hitter. However, I think it can effect walk rates in extreme cases. As going from hitting in front of Chipper, Uggla, McCann to Gonzalez, Freeman, pitcher is about as extreme of a situation as you'll find)
Nate McLouth (.260/.350/.420) 15 HR 100 Runs 58 RBI 30 2B 22 steals
We've seen a lot of "bad Nate" and people are hoping for a return to "good Nate", what we'll probably see is "mediocre Nate." He has some pop, some speed and walks a decent amount. He's really not made to be a #2 hitter, as his contact rate, even at it's best isn't what you want out of a #2 guy, he's not patient enough for a #2 guy. But he'll be okay in the spot I believe. He's substantially better than the other option that Fredi seems inclined to put there, Sea Bass.
Martin Prado (.305/.368/.470) 17 HR 115 runs 60 RBI 42 2B
Martin Prado is one of the few players that you can routinely bet on beating most of the mathematical projection type systems on a regular basis. The guy just works that hard that he's going to beat a normal career advancement curve. He should have a little more "juice in the tank" from playing the less physically taxing position of left field, which could translate into a very mild bump offensively. Then you take into account his natural progression and I think he could make another big jump in his offensive numbers. I wouldn't be totally shocked if he hit 30 HRs by turning a lot of those long doubles he hits into HRs, as he's definitely strong enough. He'll be hitting leadoff, which I think is good for him, because his one weakness is an occasional lack of patience. Hitting leadoff, he will be more inclined to be patient, and pitchers may be more inclined to throw him strikes.
Bench:
I am not going to give bench projections, as they're essentially impossible to predict, because A) how many AB's they get mostly depends on impossible to predict injuries B) their stats are over such a small sample size that they may as well be meaningless. I will just talk about what it is that each of the bench candidates brings to the table and under what circumstances they will play. First I'll address the three virtual locks for a bench job, and then talk about the remaining players who will either start the season on the bench or be likely to be on the bench at some point in time.
Brooks Conrad has some pop and switch hits. He's a fine candidate for a late inning pinch hitter position and very occasional sub. Last year, due to a myriad of injuries, Conrad was forced to play in the field a lot. For a lot of the year he held himself up admirably, despite being far from his forte and why he was on the team. But he was eventually exposed in an awful way. He is a defensive liability, there is no way around that objective fact. However, he will be fine as long as he's not counted on to give a substantial number of innings in the field. If a situation comes up where he will be counted on in that manner, Frank Wren should immediately make a move, as he just can't be out in the field for any significant number of innings.
Eric Hinske is a prototypical pinch hitter and occasional sub. He's going to give you good late inning left handed ABs with some pop. He hits the ball relatively hard and doesn't get himself out a whole lot, which is about all you can ask of a pinch hitter. He'll give you some occasional games at 1B and LF.
David Ross is, for my money, the best backup catcher in the NL. A defensive wizard, he's also perfectly adequate in the batter's box as well. This is very important because of how much the Braves depend on McCann's offense. A huge drop off would drastically change the way the team played on days when McCann was off. However, with Ross, while there is a decline, it's not drastic and allows the team to more or less function normally.
Brandon Hicks seems to have come on strong lately. He's primarily a SS/3B. He's good defensively, at least he has been in the minors, though I'd say he's short of being a "wizard." He's always had good power and speed, and he's shown increased discipline and contact rate in a limited sample size this spring. He is an excellent baserunner and was Bobby's primary pinch runner last year after he was called up. He hits RH, which is a plus since Hinske is LH and Conrad is a switch hitter. He's not a candidate to play regularly if an injury occurs, however.
Matt Young is a speedy guy who can play all the OF positions and is perhaps the best player not already assigned to the minors to play CF. He's likely a defensive OF solely. Gives the Braves 2 strong pinch runner, should the need arise. Will be mostly used in late game defensive sub situations, especially in any games where Hinske plays LF. He makes more sense when you consider that Chipper will likely get a lot of days off, where Prado will likely slide back to 3B and have Matt play CF or LF late in the game in defensive situations for Hinske, with McClouth playing the other spot.
Players who, despite being assigned to the minors will likely see substantial time in Atlanta at some point:
Diory Hernandez is a solid fielder and marginal hitter. He probably should have been in the field during some of those late year Brooks Conrad defensive lapses. I believe that if a middle infielder goes on the DL at some point this year Diory would be called up and would start over Hicks, Lucas or Mather.
Jordan Schafer is an interesting tale. He lost almost all of 2010 due to injury, has been suspended for something to do with HGH (never exactly clear what went on) and has struggled this spring, despite "looking good and feeling great." I think the Braves, much like Wilkin Ramirez, are sending Schafer to minors, because they still believe he has a future in Atlanta. After having missed so much time, they believe that he mostly needs regular ABs, which he wouldn't get in a bench role in Atlanta. If he hits well in the minors, I expect him to be the first one called up if someone goes on the DL at 3B, CF or RF. 3B may seem weird, until you consider that Prado would probably vacate LF and slide into 3B if/when Chipper goes on the DL. In that scenario I believe you'd see Nate slide over into LF (or perhaps Hinske) and Schafer take CF. If Jordan doesn't hit well in the minors, I'd expect Wilkin Ramirez to get called up and some sort of combination of all the available options to fill the role Schafer would. I personally believe he's too talented and too hard of a worker to not eventually get things turned around, though he is quickly running out of time.
Next up: Starters and Bullpen (article now posted: Link here )
After that: team defensive performance, overall record predictions, awards, etc
After that: Top 10 fears for the 2011 Atlanta Braves
Sources: Baseball-reference.com, Maple Street Press 2011 Braves Guide, Bill James Handbook 2011, Atlanta Journal Constitution Braves beat blog (David O'Brien, Carrol Rodgers), Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, MLB.com, Capitol Avenue Club
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