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A lot of readers will probably have found my lineup predictions for the 2011 Atlanta Braves to be a little bit optimistic. That's probably partly because I don't predict injuries in these spaces, I save those for my "Top Fears" column, which is to come later. Also, I really do believe that outside of the hole that Alex Gonzalez will be, the 2011 Atlanta Braves will have a fantastic lineup, perhaps the best in the National League.
Now, this optimism is going to be balanced by my projections for the pitching staff. I believe most will find my predictions for both the relievers and starters to be below what they're expecting.
Rotation Order:
1) Derek Lowe
2) Tim Hudson
3) Tommy Hanson
4) Jair Jurrjens
5) Brandon Beachy
First to be called up in case of injury: Mike Minor
Derek Lowe - 3.64 ERA 14-7 140 K's 55 BB's 14 HR's allowed 190 IP
Quick question, which pitcher out of Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens and Tim Hudson had the best strikeout to walk ratio? If you answered Derek Lowe, it was probably because this is his section, not because you legitimately would have thought that. Derek Lowe has been maligned (possibly fairly) because of his contract, to such an extent that I think he's actually pretty underrated at this point, especially by Braves fans. Few people would guess that Lowe really pitched about as well as Hudson did last year. The only major difference between the two pitchers was Hudson's unbelievably low .253 BABIP v. Lowe's substantially higher than should be expected .313. They were virtually identical in strikeouts, walks, HR's allowed, 2B's allowed, which are generally the categories that pitchers can control. Pitchers typically can't control whether or not a given single type hit gets caught or turns into an out. Last year Lowe was pretty bad at what I call "magic pitching" which basically means he was slightly unlucky. I expect a solid season out of him.
Tim Hudson - 3.60 ERA 15-8 145 K's 72 BB's 15 HR's allowed 194 IP
As mentioned above, if Lowe was slightly unlucky, Hudson was extremely lucky. That's not to say he wasn't a good pitcher last year, just that his record and ERA indicated a GREAT pitcher, which he probably wasn't. The argument that he's a ground ball pitcher really doesn't hold water, as so was Lowe and both gave up nearly identical 2B and HR rates. I expect a return to Earth for Hudson this year, though I still expect him to put up solid numbers. Just not the spectacular numbers of last year.
Tommy Hanson - 3.02 ERA 16-7 190 K's 65 BB's 14 HR's allowed 196 IP
Tommy Hanson was INCREDIBLY unlucky last year, especially when it came to wins and losses and run support. Sure, he was prone to the occasional disaster game, but he was much more "prone" to a gem where he took a ND or loss due to lack of run support. Last year, he dropped somewhat in strikeouts, but also cut his walks, making it a wash. Hanson should still be in the progression stage of his career and my projections reflect that. I fully expect by the second half of this year that he will be considered the staff ace.
Jair Jurrjens - 4.05 ERA 10-10 120 K's 60 BB's 17 HR's allowed 170 IP
Well, I'll more than likely get a lot of hate for this. Who is Jair Jurrjens? Is he the guy that threw up some upper echelon stats in 2009, the slightly above average guy from 2008, the 3rd or 4th starter prospect from his Detroit days or the awful pitcher with injury issues from last year? The truth is he's probably some of all of that. Jair walks a decent amount of people, doesn't strike a whole lot of guys out and gives up a decent amount of doubles and HR's. Those things are all bad. However, he does tend to get a pretty decent amount of GIDP's and pitches well from the stretch. He had a slightly higher than expected BABIP allowed last year at .309, so he probably won't be quite as bad as he was last year, but he'll likely be a 4th starter type pitcher who gives you a chance to win many of the games he pitches. Also disconcerting was a fastball that mostly sat in the 85-89 range in spring training, a 1-3 MPH dropoff on an already average fastball, if that kind of velocity drop is here to stay, things could get ugly. Do not expect the greatness that most Braves fans expected from Jurrjens going forward. Definitely don't expect a 2009 type year from him.
Brandon Beachy - 4.10 ERA 6-5 80 K's 28 BB's 8 HR's allowed 85 IP
Beachy v. Minor was a pretty big battle this spring, but it boiled down to a LOT of factors. 1) Beachy did in fact pitch slightly better than Minor this spring, though both pitched very well. 2) The Braves seem to view Minor as the better long term prospect, and thus likely want him to get regular work in AAA, especially during the early part of the season, when the 5th starter gets skipped a lot and 3) Playing each other back and forth between the minors delays both players service clocks, to the Braves largest financial advantage 4) If the Braves trade Beacy this year, they'd prefer to get him as much MLB exposure as possible. If both pitchers pitch in the 5th spot for roughly half the year, as I expect if neither is traded, then the Braves get two players for cheaper, longer. I'd really look for Beachy to get traded though, as good as he's looked, he has no long term future in Atlanta, with Teheran and Delgado on their way, Mike Minor and Tommy Hanson already here and any other number of pitching prospects not all that far behind either. Best case scenario is he pitches lights out for a couple months, gets packaged for a SS to someone in need of a SP (who doesn't need SP?) and Minor takes over.
Mike Minor - 4.05 ERA 6-5 90 K's 33 BB's 9 HR's allowed 90 IP
I believe that being lefty and the better long term prospect, Minor pitches more than Beachy, and perhaps much more if Beachy is traded, even though Beachy got the initial nod at #5. I think Minor is a solid #3/#4 long term for the franchise, and in many rotations could perhaps be a solid #2. He'll long term be behind Hanson and Teheran and maybe even Delgado in a future Braves rotation. But this is a column about this year and I expect him to put up good, though not world beating, numbers this year. His IP numbers could be substantially higher if there is a significant injury to anyone on the Braves staff, or if Beachy is traded, but I don't predict those kinds of things here.
Kenshin Kawakami will only see a Braves rotation if hellfire and brimstone rain down on the Braves starters and Teheran is absolutely not ready. Hopefully he's traded for some sort of contract relief, but likely he just makes $6.67 million to be the Gwinnett Braves' #2 starter (or as recent reports are saying the AA Mississippi team). For the record, I don't know that he's all that terrible, but it's clear he has no future in the Braves' rotation, despite his paycheck.
Overall I expect the rotation to be good, just not as good as some of those saying they believe it rivals the Phillies rotation seem to believe. The Braves may well be a better team than the Phillies overall, but let's be 100% clear. This rotation is not even remotely close to what the Phillies will be throwing out there, barring injuries. Don't expect the same 3rd in MLB ERA as last year either.
Bullpen:
The 2011 Braves' bullpen is shaping up to be one of the more interesting stories around MLB. Mostly because the team seems set to at least initially go with a situational closer system, not quite closer by committee, but it will probably be referred to by that moniker. I went in depth as to why I think it will probably work in a previous posting here, so I won't really go into the ins and outs of why I think this situation is different than most of the other failed closer systems. The bullpen has the arms to be a really special unit, but also has the potential to really implode if things don't go right, as will be addressed in my biggest fears column.
Craig Kimbrell (RHP) - Closer
Jonny Venters (LHP) - Closer
Peter Moylan (RHP)
Eric O'Flaherty (LHP)
Scott Linebrink (RHP)
George Sherrill (LHP)
Christhian Martinez (RHP)
Craig Kimbrell - 3.87 ERA 55 IP 78 K's 35 Walks 17 Saves
I don't think that Kimbrell has fully solved his wildness and I believe he'll go through at least a couple of situations in which he really blows a couple of games. I'd almost be more inclined to put him in a one run game than a 3 run lead, as he can absolutely dominate at times, but can also completely blow ordinarily safe leads. He may well have the most unhittable stuff in all of baseball, but he often has no idea where his slider is going. At any given time he could quite easily walk two and give up a 3 run homer or strikeout the side in order. I would have rather seen him have one year of MLB experience in low leverage situations before being thrust into the closer role, but such is life. I believe long term he will be one of the most dominant closers in the game, I just don't think he will be this year, this year I think he'll be good overall, with streaks of horridness and elite greatness.
Jonny Venters - 2.34 ERA 65 IP 70K's 26 Walks 23 Saves
You could make the case that Jonny Venters was the most valuable reliever in the NL last year. He devastated the league with not only more K's than innings pitched, but also one of the highest ground ball percentages in MLB history for relievers throwing as many innings as he did. All his pitches have strong downward movement and he throws hard. However, he was wild at times last year, giving up around a half a walk per IP, which isn't particularly good. What happens in year 2 is a mystery. He doesn't seem to be a flash in the pan, as he threw too many innings and had too good of stuff to be merely a statistical anomaly, as a lot of relievers are at times. Yet, he did seem to get off lightly when he was wild last year, and perhaps he may have a few more blowup games than he did last year. However you can also make the case that relievers tend to get less wild with experience, and such may be the case with Venters. I think he'll be the better closer this year out of he and Kimbrell, though I think long term Kimbrell is better. I don't think his numbers will be quite as good as last year, but I also wouldn't be surprised if they're better. I think Venters will again pitch a ton, as both a closer and a situational lefty. He will most likely be the Braves' most valuable reliever.
Peter Moylan - 3.45 ERA 64 IP 55 K's 26 Walks
Moylan changed his delivery towards the end of last year to become even more of a sidearmer, to great effect. He has shown control problems in the past. However, the downward movement he gets on his pitches is absurd. As Peter Hjort of Capitol Avenue Club put it, "his changeup is a sinker, his sinker is a super-sinker and his curve is a changeup." This movement is why he gets so many ground balls, why he strikes out a decent number despite not particularly great velocity and why he walks a relatively high number of batters. Expect him to be the primary situational righty and ground ball double play specialist.
Eric O'Flaherty - 3.67 ERA 60 IP 45 K's 24 Walks
O'Flaherty will be the second lefty in the pen after Venters, and the primary lefty in games in which it's near certain that Venters will close. Despite being not as well known as the above three guys, he will play an important role out of the bullpen this year. Expect to see a lot more of him, as situations in which Venters would ordinarily be called upon last year, will likely go to O'Flaherty this year, as Venters is often saved for the 9th inning. How will the young guy with a mixed track record handle the increased pressure situations?
Scott Linebrink - 3.85 ERA 50 IP 45 K's 17 Walks
I think he'll get a nice boost in his numbers from switching leagues and going from ultra hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field to Turner Field. Many hitters won't have much experience with him and we should see his atrocious number of homeruns drop to a merely bad level. That's the thing with Linebrink, he has good control and puts up decent strikeout numbers, but will give up homeruns. As long as you give him "clean frames" where the worst he can do is give up a solo shot, he is fine. However, if you bring him in with men on base a lot, expect to give up some multi-run bombs.
George Sherrill - 3.50 ERA 35 IP 34 K's 17 Walks
His role will be that of a purely situational lefty when the team doesn't want to burn Venters or O'Flaherty. In that role he will be fine. He is eaten alive by RH batters, but can still get lefties out. Mediocre to bad control at this stage in his career. Will likely frustrate a lot of Braves fans with the following type lines : 0 IP, 1BB, 1 batter faced. But he may also save a lot of jams when the likes of Ryan Howard comes to the plate with men on 2nd and 3rd with two outs in the 6th inning.
Christhian Martinez - 4.00 ERA 32 IP 26 K's 9 Walks
For some reason a lot of people think that Martinez is a high strikeout high walks guy. Which points out two things: 1) People don't know much about him and 2) He's really the Braves only reliever with what can be called excellent control. He has shown elite control with an acceptable K rate throughout the minors and in the majors. Expect him to be the primary long man. People also tend to think he's a young guy. He's 29 years old. He's about at his ceiling, and I expect Stephen Marek and/or Kris Medlen to take his spot at some point in time this year. Which may or may not be a shame, because I think he's more useful than people think, especially considering how wild the rest of the bullpen can be.
Overall, the thing that worries me most about this bullpen is wildness. All of the primary guys are prone to extended bouts of wildness, with Kimbrell being the poster child. If this group can hold the walks down, they have the collective stuff to be completely dominant. However, I'm betting than a few "games in hand" get blown due to walks. On the other hand, I'd be willing to bet they will also go through streaks where a one run lead stands up for several innings as strikeout after strikeout is piled up.
Sources: Baseball-reference.com, Maple Street Press 2011 Braves Guide, Bill James Handbook 2011, Atlanta Journal Constitution Braves beat blog (David O'Brien, Carrol Rodgers), Paul Lebowitz's 2011 Baseball Guide, MLB.com, Capitol Avenue Club
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