homer/double ratio and steriods

In the last post I made a point about one clue to suggest Chipper is not on PEDs is that his homerun/double ratio has been very stable throughout his career.

For example, lets look at Barry Bonds. Up until 1998, Barry’s homerun/double ratio had been relatively stable. In 1998, Barry had 44 doubles to only 37 homers. In 1999, Barry was injured, and many people believe this is when he started taking steriods, although reports differ on exactly when during this year he did. However, a lot of people agree that he wasn't on steroids in 1998 and he was at some point in early 1999. In '99 Barry’s homerun/double ratio was 34/20. This in and of itself wouldn’t be a huge one year swing, especially as his number of plate appearances that year was smaller. But it marked a point of Barry’s 8 best years (where he won 4 MVPs and was second another time), when in no year was his homerun/double ratio anywhere close to even (what it had basically been pre-1999). His closest homer/double ratio during that period was 46/31. The split was as big as 73/32.

On to other confirmed steriods users, Rafael Palmeiro, who is basically the poster boy for this theory. 1998 he had an astounding 41 doubles v. only 8 homers. In fact up until 1995, Palmeiro never hit more homers than doubles in any season and between 1997 and 2004 he never hit more doubles than homers.

Ken Caminiti, up until 1996 had a relatively stable ratio of 2 doubles per homerun. Typical gap power. Then he miraculously began hitting just as many homers as doubles for the rest of his career.

Frank Thomas, a player who most believe is clean (the guy was gigantic all the way back in high school) has maintained a pretty stable 1-1 Homers/doubles ratio throughout his career as well.

While these are just a few anecdotal cases, the theory does seem to be backed up by the numbers. The theory is that steriods don’t help you square up the ball (most doubles are well hit balls that lack a little power or else would be homers). Thus being unnaturally strong turns a lot of would be doubles into homers. It also may turn a few singles into doubles as well, but that effect is complicated by the fact that the hitter might have just started being more selctive and thus squaring up more hits.

Its not a perfect theory and guys like David Wright and Chipper Jones may very well be on steroids, but the double theory would seem to say they just square up a lot of balls.