Monday, April 18, 2011

How To Argue With Someone About Heyward Hitting Second



So the Jason Heyward hitting sixth thing has taken off. He did hit second yesterday, but only because Nate McLouth was out. Reading Fredi Gonzalez's quotes on the issue is painful, as is David O'Brien's condescending head nodding on the topic. (O'Brien's analysis of the issue seems to be along the lines of "well, he rides a Harley, and there was that thing with Hanley Ramirez, so this guy has to be infallible.")

What doesn't seem to work when debating these issues with people who support Heyward hitting sixth is logic and facts. You can point out all sorts of facts like the second hitter comes to bat substantially more and comes to bat with virtually identical numbers of runners on base as the sixth spot. You can point out the fact that Heyward has by far the most walks on the team and hasn't scored on any of those walks. You can point out the fact that it makes no sense to think that Gonzalez is good enough to protect Heyward, but isn't good enough to protect Uggla. (another shot at O'Brien is that he has asked the question "for those who think Heyward should be hitting 2nd, who will protect Uggla then?!" and then said after Gonzalez has had an admittedly good start with the bat "hey all you guys who don't think Gonzalez is good enough to protect Heyward in the 6th spot, well...." And he doesn't seem to have the slightest clue that those two statements are totally incongruous.)

You can point all that out and none of it matters to them. So I am going to point out some ways to argue the point. These aren't good arguments and are filled with all sorts of logical fallacies and misconceptions about the game of baseball, but that's what these people need to be convinced by. It's like telling your superstitious grandmother that you had a dream she didn't get a flu shot and then died of a snakebite to convince her to get a flu shot, instead of just trying to reason with her.

1) Heyward has been cold in the sixth spot. He may have some homers, but his batting average, the primary way we should evaluate hitters has been an abysmal .240. That is the number they put on the scoreboard. Last year he hit .277 from the #2 spot. Obviously he needs to be moved up to the #2 spot to "get him going" because hitters hit totally differently depending on what spot in the batting order they're in.

2) We may not know more about baseball than Fredi Gonzalez, he rides a Harley Davidson afterall. However, who knows more about baseball in the history of the world than Bobby Cox? Bobby Cox hit Heyward second. So, really it's not so much that I'm questioning Fredi Gonzalez, I'm questioning why he isn't following the example of a HOF manager who knew more about how to put his players in a position to succeed than perhaps anyone in the history of the game.

3) I appreciate the fact that we're trying to get McOut going and all, but it's a failed experiment, we need to just cut losses with the guy and trade him along with Kawakami to some Russian League team.

4) Heyward is being groomed for the #3 spot, so we should hit him #2, which is closer to Chipper's spot, and thus he'll be able to more closely observe Chipper.

5) The Braves lineup has struggled thus far and we just need to shake things up.

Now, don't think through any of these statements too hard yourself. Definitely don't apply logic to them. Just keep in mind that sometimes you can reach a correct conclusion for totally nonsensical reasons.

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