A Possible Real Impact Call Up That The Braves Should Make Sooner, Rather Than Later

There is a possible, very realistic call up the Braves could make this year that might well put them over the edge in what is likely to be a really, really close race with the Phillies. This call up is a legit major league talent and is already in the organization. Imagine these numbers being added to the team:

in 15 games he could well hit .300/.420/.600 with 3 homers, 12 runs, 7 RBI, 4 doubles. And those numbers would be just a regular, "that's what he's projected to do" type numbers, not an aberrantly hot start.

Who is this late season miracle worker and why in God's name hasn't Wren called the guy up already?!

Well, that's the problem. The guy has already been called up. His name is Jason Heyward.

Huh?!

Over a full season Jason Heyward is slated to lose 15 games worth of AB's, by hitting 6th instead of 2nd. Those AB's will be taken by Nate McLouth. Nate McLouth who best case scenario probably hits .265/.350/.450 over that span.

David O'Brien snidely suggested the other day via Twitter that people upset over those numbers are just upset because they have Heyward on their fantasy team, implying that those additional numbers from Heyward wouldn't benefit the team. I don't have Heyward on my fantasy team, as another deranged braves fan payed $70 for him in my auction league (Heyward went for more dough than Pujols or Joey Votto). However, I do think that those numbers are significant. Especially because there really is absolutely no pro at all to losing that many Heyward at bats. O'Brien's quote also has the chuckle worthy implication that Bobby Cox hit Heyward 2nd last year because he had Heyward on his fantasy team.

First let us consider the supposed pro, which is that Heyward is a run producer, long term, and the 6th spot is kinda like the 5th spot, which is kinda like the 4th spot, which is sorta like the 3rd spot, which is where Heyward will eventually hit according to everyone you talk to about the kid's future (some people say he should always hit 2nd, but I'm actually there referring to where he likely will eventually hit, after Chipper retires). Now, there is the obvious way of looking at things, that the 2nd spot is actually numerically closer to the 3rd spot, and there's the more subtle way of looking at things and see what the spots in the order do. However, the 2nd spot is really much more of the dual run creator and producer type role, as is the 3rd spot. And this is what Heyward is best at, both driving in runs and getting on base to create runs. In contrast, the 6th spot is more of a low end run producing role and is definitely not where you want someone who is going to be a major run creator, as you'll often be left with depending on the 8th and 9th hitters to knock him in. So both ways of looking at the situation say that if you are worried about "grooming him for the 3 spot" which is dubious reasoning to begin with, it still says you should bat Heyward 2nd.

The second argument for Heyward in the 6th spot is that he's more of a run producer than a run creator and that is where his talents help the Braves the most this year. There are three major flaws to this logic. First is the idea that run producers are more valuable than run creators. Guys who get on base and get knocked in are extremely valuable. What has Atlanta mostly been missing for a lot of the decade? A consistent guy at the top of the lineup to get on base and run the bases well and get knocked in by the middle of the order. By batting Heyward 6th, you are wasting one of the most valuable assets in all of baseball: A guy you can pencil in for an over .400 OBP. The second major flaw is the idea that Heyward is more of a run producer than a run creator at this stage in his career. Heyward can have beastly power, however, it is still developing. Right now Heyward has one of the highest ground ball percentages on the team. He has a mostly downward/level swing. When he does hit homers they're mostly of the screaming line drive variety, not the towering majestic shots. At this point in his career, Heyward is more of a doubles hitter with occasional home run power who walks a ton. That type of hitter is best leveraged high in the order, because he's going to get on base more than he clears the bases. The third problem is the very idea that in the current Braves lineup the 6th spot will come to base with substantially more baserunners aboard is faulty to begin with. For now McLouth has actually come to plate with slightly more baserunners than Heyward. And while over the long haul I expect the 6th spot to have more "RBI opportunities" than the 2nd spot, I don't expect the difference to be dramatic, because it's right behind the two best homers/double hitters on the team, McCann and Uggla. Uggla is likely going to have a combined 70-80 homers and doubles. Meaning that a lot of those supposedly precious RBI opportunities are going to be already cleaned out by Uggla. Uggla's not some slap hitter that is going to be on base for Heyward and advance runners for Heyward very much. He's a very powerful hitter that is going to clear the bases a lot.

The third argument for hitting Heyward 6th is to provide Uggla with protection. I'm not really going to go into the dubious idea of lineup protection here, because I've found that the adherents to that belief take more than statistical convincing that lineup protection is a relatively minor point, if it exists at all. Even granting that lineup protection is real, this idea still makes no sense. Jason Heyward is the best all around hitter on the team, and he's patient. If the worry with lineup protection is that it hurts a patient hitter by having them pitched around, wouldn't you want to protect Jason Heyward more than Dan Uggla?! David O'Brien was going on last week about how with a decent start Gonzalez was adequately protecting Heyward, then this week busted out the gem "for those who want Heyward 2nd, who do you suppose is going to protect Uggla?!" Huh? So Gonzalez is good enough to protect the super patient, apt to be pitched around Heyward, but not good enough to protect Uggla, who often swings at and punishes pitches slightly off the plate anyway? Uggla, who fared relatively well in Florida with little to no lineup protection, all of the sudden needs Jason Heyward behind him in Atlanta? Yet Jason Heyward, who tore things up in the 2nd spot last year with protection doesn't need protection? Again, I think the idea of lineup protection is overblown by the traditional media, but even if it is important, it still doesn't support that Heyward should hit 6th.

In the end I doubt this convinces anybody either way. Those that support the Heyward in the 6th spot idea will find any support they can for it. You can approach a nameless beat reporter and Braves blogger with the statistic that Jason Heyward has now walked 8 times and has scored on exactly 0 of those walks and they'll retort "Heyward, you mean that guy who hit that three run bomb the other night?" as if that somehow meant something. Perhaps the most ironic thing is that last year when some fans were questioning Bobby Cox's use of Heyward in the #2 spot, these same people were defending Bobby. They would respond in absolute disbelief that you could question a guy as patient as Heyward in the 2nd spot and the nerve of questioning a hall of fame manager. In the end that probably points out a lot of what this is about. There are some who cannot question the team's manager, especially when he's well respected, as both Fredi and Bobby were and are. You can even make the case that some writers have an interest in backing the manager, and hoping that that backing leads to more access to the club. I'm generally supportive of Fredi, I think he runs a good clubhouse, is pretty good at figuring out when to take out the starting pitchers and I like the way he rotates his lineup regulars. However, batting Heyward 6th is, in my opinion, not the best usage of Heywards talents and not the best way to score more runs for the team, and I'm going to call it that way, not because I question everything the manager does, but because it's true.

So Fredi, please call up Heyward from the 6th spot and put him in the 2nd spot, where he thrived last year, and where Bobby had the foresight to pencil him in.