The Crazy NL

So I'm sure everybody would have picked the NL Central to have the best composite record in the NL. I'm sure everybody would have guessed that Arizona would have scored 2 runs per game more than the Mets and a whopping 30 more total runs than the Dodgers and have the largest run differntial of any team in baseball (after being the only team to make the playoffs with a negative run differntial last year). I'm sure everybody had the new look Dodgers in last place in the NL West, tied for the 3rd worst record in baseball. I'm sure everybody had the Marlins leading the East and the Cardinals leading the Central.

Not that things are any more sane in the AL, where Cleveland and Detroit are in next to last and last place in the Central and your division leaders are Baltimore, KC and Oakland.

What does this all mean? Not be obvious or anything, but it means its early.

Sticking to the NL:
Team that is "legit":

Arizona - They won't continue to be this good, but if this team scores runs, they're going to be hard to beat. In the early running, it definitely looks like they're going to score runs. However, as a team they don't get on base a whole lot and they strike out a lot, which could lead to some really cold streaks down the road. I like their pitching, both bullpen and starting rotation.

Teams that will be fine:

Atlanta - I still hold that by the end of the season they will score the most runs in the NL and I don't even think it will be close. Jeff Francoeur might be the easiest out in the lineup, and he's a guy who has kncoked in 100, hit nearly .300 and will hit around 30 homers this year. Its hard to tell what to make of the starting pitching right now. Reports are saying that Glavine's hamstring is fine. He has never gone on the DL, and although he's still old, there isn't really any reason to believe he'll miss much time. Jurjjens has been fine as a #4 starter and I think he can continue to do well in that role. Hudson has been everything you can ask of a #1. So, Ithink the biggest question marks are who is the #5 and how much will the Braves get out of Smoltz. Smoltz has been dominant when he's pitched, but at this point, its not clear if he can pitch 200 innings. If he gets to around 200, I think everything is fine and it doesn't matter who the 5th is, as the top 4 will win more than enough games behind that offense.

The bullpen is a concern obviously, as I addressed it last blog and nothing has really changed. If it can ever get healthy and can get into establish roles of Moylan/Gonzalez -> Soriano, it will be more than fine.

The Braves have outscored their opponents by over a run per game, and while the bullpen has blown a lot of 1 run games, you have to believe that will even out at least somewhat. The offense has been very good and Texieria hasn't even started hitting yet. THe only worry is that the one run nightmare becomes a mental block where the team chokes in those situations. However, with Bobby cox and all the veterans who are viewing this as one of their last good shots, I don't see that happening.

Colorado - First, let me say by "fine" I mean they will contend for the wildcard, If Arizona keeps this up, they're going to run away from this division, which is much weaker than people think. Their lineup is too good not to score runs and that is their main problem thus far. The pitching will hold them back, but they have a very good bullpen and they'll be right there.

Cincinnatti - I think they have good young pitching, anchored by a big time ace, they're going to score a lot of runs and they should have a good enough bullpen.

Teams that could go either way:

The Mets - I wanted to put them in the teams that will be fine category, but Pedro is out until June and Willie Randolph might be fired if the ship doesn't right itself. Their rotation has more questions behind Johan Santana than the Braves does behind Hudson. Their lineup is nowhere near as good as people think it is. When Moises Alou is out, there are only really two difficult outs. You can find a way to get around Beltran and David Wright. Jose Reyes looks more and more like the bad Jose Reyes every day who doesn't walk, swings at terrible pitches and doesn't play with maximum effort. Carlos Delgado is just a hole in the lineup that you can go to for strikeouts or doubleplays whenever you need them. If the pitching comes together, they'll be right in the division/wildcard race, as the bullpen is good, probably the best in the East and the starting pitching can be very good, if those happen the lineup will score more than enough runs. However, if things get worse before they get better, if Oliver Perez has more outings like he did this week, if the Willie Randolph situation becomes a circus in the NY media, then this team could get itself out of contention in a hurry.

Milwaukee - This team has a lot of power, but they strike out a lot and they don't walk all that much. Not a good recipe for consistent offensive success. If Ben Sheets has a healthy year, they have the pitching up front, but its hard to tell exactly what to make of their bullpen. If Sheets goes down, the bullpen blows up and their offense has lots of 10+ K games, this team will fall behind fast. The Central could be tough with Cincinnatti and Chicago possibly being contenders and Pittsburgh being better this year.

The Dodgers - I'm nowhere near as high on their lineup as most. Andruw Jones will continue to be an 18 million dollar out machine. I think Jeff Kent's bat will slow and the young kids won't be able to hold up under the pressure. They have average/good pitching and their bullpen is very good, but I just don't think they will score a lot of runs in the NL West where you face top flight pitching regularly. I think they'll be right there in the wildcard, but I don't see them really being a very good team, let alone a great team. Joe Torre is great at bringing high priced veterans who haven't played together into a cohesive whole, but this team is a bunch of young players who are trying to find consistency, and I don't know if Torre is the best manager for that. I think he's good with young players if its just a couple, but he has more than a couple here.

The Phillies - They will score a ton of runs, but I HATE their rotation and bullpen. When it starts to heat up in philly, expect a lot of 8-9 games. And in that kind of situation is virtually impossible to predict how it will shake out. Cole Hamels is fragile and Brett Myers was a closer last year, and its roughly 2938754 times worse after those two.

Teams that will be decent, but not in contention:

Pittsburgh: I like their bullpen, their lineup will be average once Adam Laroche inevtiably heats up (notorious slow starter) and they have good young pitching. In the end they don't have enough bullets to play with the big boys, but they may cause havoc in the NL central.

San Diego - They just aren't going to hit nearly enough to win games where Chris Young and Jake Peavy don't throw shutouts. I look for them to be right around .500 they have good Sp and a good bullpen, but no real shot of being any better than that. If Chris Young and/or Jake Peavy go down due to injury, this team could be San Francisco bad.

The bubble is about to burst:

Florida - they've been outscored so far and they've played a weak schedule. Han Ram may be the best player in the NL (right there with a healthy Chipper Jones, Matt Holliday and Johan Santana). Their pitching is about to be absolutely crushed when they start playing Philly, Atlanta and the Mets regularly. I think in the end they are far behind the Nats.

St. Louis - Tony LaRussa will keep them together as long as he can, but at some point the house of cards is going to fold, especially if Pujols' elbow implodes. I think Ankiel will have a hard time making adjustments when pitchers start to get a book on him. The pitching just can't hold up over a long period and the bullpen, while effectively used, isn't all that talented. They'll win the games they should win, but there will be a lot of games where they are just out-talented. They'll be slightly worse than the pirates when it all shakes out.