Breaking Down Beltran, Pence, Heyward to the Minors, Upton, etc

I said yesterday that Beltran to the Braves just wasn't going to happen. Who knows how close it ever came and if there ever was a chance, but I get the distinct impression that as soon as both the Rangers and Giants were involved, the Braves were essentially out.

The analysis of the trade in the blogosphere seemed to begin with what teams could offer the Mets. However, I think an underappreciated angle was how much influence Beltran and Boras had over the process.

Beltran had indicated only really three things: 1) that he wanted to play for a contender (duh, who else would trade for him anyway?) 2) That he would prefer to play RF and 3) that he wanted to play everyday.

The problem with the Braves is that they seemingly couldn't really guarantee parts 2 and 3. In an interview with David O'Brien yesterday, Boras sounded for all the world like the Braves weren't even really a consideration. If the team wasn't giving up Minor, that wouldn't make Boras talk that way, Boras doesn't care who the Mets got, as long as it was enough to get his client moved. No, it's my opinion that once The Rangers and the Giants, both contenders who could gurantee Beltran an everyday spot in RF, got involved Beltran indicated he'd probably veto any trade to the Braves, who could only guarantee an everyday spot if Beltran would play CF at least part time. I actually doubt that once those two clubs were involved, the Braves actually had much of a chance to not offer Mike Minor. Once Boras saw that there were two clubs willing to offer a package that the Mets would accept, he essentially represented his client's wishes by indicating that the club that couldn't offer an everyday spot in RF was done. Classic game theory. Of course it's just speculation and we can never know for certain, but I think it's plausible if not probable.

Now, what of this Hunter Pence posturing? Dufus extraordinaire, Jim Bowden, of ESPN has said (along with other reports) that the Braves are heavily in on Hunter Pence. He also indicated (again, aping other reports) the Braves would option Heyward to the minors in order to open up a slot for Pence. If they are willing to do this, why wouldn't they give up Minor for Beltran and say we'll option Heyward to the minors?

It's my belief that this is either completely fabricated by bored beat writers (mostly Mark Bowman, who seemed to completely pull the original Heyward to AAA rumor out of his ass) or it's a deliberate plant by the Braves, to create leverage with the Rays and Cubs, who have CFers that the Braves likely covet in BJ Upton, Reed Johnson and Marlon Byrd.

The problem with the Braves position is that they clearly want a RH upgrade in CF, but the options are extremely slim. So perhaps they're creating an illusion of options so that they have a bit more leverage with the Rays with Upton and the Cubs. If it seems like they might go with Pence, perhaps the asking price for Upton, Johnson/Byrd goes down. However, if the Rays know that Upton is really the Braves only option, the asking price could get astronomical.

I firmly believe however that the Braves would make no move before they'd trade for Pence and send Heyward to the minors. Again, if they would be willing to trade for Pence, they would have made a harder push for Beltran. Their actions indicate that they actually want a CFer first and foremost and are very unlikely to trade for an everyday corner OFer.

I'd rate the major remaining options as:

BJ Upton: 25%
Marlon Byrd: 15%
Reed Johnson: 30%
Hunter Pence: 10%
other: 10%
No move: 10%

Of course if the Braves do trade for Pence and option Heyward, this is all hogwash. I also will consider being done with the Braves this year.